- Donald Trump is getting dragged through the mud for his turnout at a recent Florida rally.
- Critics are calling for him to drop out of the presidential race because he doesn’t stand a chance.
- The S&P 500 has been a historically accurate predictor of the presidency, and it’s telling a different story.
Donald Trump has done it again. He’s said something stupid, and the internet has pounced. His poll numbers are atrocious. Liberals think they’ve won. Everything is signaling a Trump loss in the fall–except one of the most accurate predictors: the S&P 500.
Trump’s Dismal Turnout in ‘Frorida’
People on Twitter think that Trump will lose this fall because his rally was tiny, and he misspelled some words.
Wake up and smell the “covfefe.”
This is classic Trump.
“Frorida” was trending on Twitter. His “massive numbers” and “big crowds” were “exposed” with photo evidence. Combined with his bleak poll numbers, liberals seem to think their candidate is a lock to win, again.
But we all know how 2016 turned out. And, sadly, there’s evidence mounting that we’re in for a repeat.
The S&P 500 Tells a Different Story
Lost in the ‘Frorida’ mania, was a mostly ignored tweet from an asset management firm, Strategas.
It tweeted a graph that showed the correlation between incumbent presidents election outcomes, and the strength of the S&P 500.
According to Strategas, Trump is gaining power.
Strategas claims that the S&P 500’s performance in the three months through Election Day predicts the outcome with 87% accuracy.
If the S&P 500 performs well, the incumbent president generally wins. And let’s not mince words: it’s performing well.
The S&P 500 climbed to an all-time high of nearly 3,400 in mid-February. Following news of pandemic lockdowns, it crashed below 2,200 within a month. Ever since then, it’s been golden.
Against all the odds, the S&P 500 is already knocking on the door of its all-time high as it flirts with 3,300 today.
The Stock Market Is Exceeding Expectations of a Normal Year
Pandemic and economic disaster aside, US Bank researched 90 years of data and concluded that the S&P 500 usually sees lower gains leading up to an election year.
Trump’s S&P 500 is exceeding the expectations of a ‘normal’ year, and this has been anything but a typical year.
And it’s not just the S&P 500. The Dow Jones is rebounding nicely, and NASDAQ is at an all-time high.
Trump isn’t shy about it either:
If markets across the board are exceeding every expectation, who’s to say Donald Trump won’t do the same?
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CCN.com.
Last modified: September 23, 2020 2:10 PM