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Tesla Shares Only Need 10% Bump for Elon Musk’s $1 Billion Bonus

Last Updated September 23, 2020 1:29 PM
Mark Emem
Last Updated September 23, 2020 1:29 PM
  • Elon Musk is now on course to hitting all milestones this year, if not this month.
  • The first set of targets in the generous pay package plan that Tesla’s board signed off in 2018 was supposed to have been realized by 2028.
  • There are nearly as many Tesla analysts screaming SELL as those issuing a BUY rating.

After closing Friday at $478, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock accelerated on Monday to yet another all-time high in just a span of days. With the electric car maker’s market cap now hovering north of $90 billion, Elon Musk’s is now nearer than ever to unlocking the first tranche (out of 12) of his generous pay package that was announced in 2018.

While there are multiple performance targets in the compensation plan, several have been achieved already. The only remaining milestone is Tesla hitting a market cap of $100 billion. Tesla has already hit annual revenues of $20 billion which was one of the operational targets. The electric car maker had also already reached an adjusted annualized EBITDA of $1.5 billion by 2019’s third quarter.

Tesla now eyeing $100 billion market cap

At the current stock price the electric car firm only has less than $10 billion to go before this milestone is also conquered.

Each tranche in the compensation plan will see Musk get 1% of Tesla’s shares. As of March 2019, the number of Tesla’s outstanding shares was 173,720,801. Going by this number Musk stands to get at least 1.7 million shares of the electric car maker once the initial targets are reached.

Tesla stock price chart | Source: TradingView

At a market cap of $100 billion each of Tesla’s shares would have to be worth over $575. Based on Monday’s closing price of nearly $525, the stock only needs to go up by just 9.5% for Musk to tick off all the boxes and vest the first tranche of stock worth over $1 billion. Since the start of the year, the stock has gone up by nearly 20%.

What if Elon Musk pumps the stock and runs?

The compensation plan dictates that the Musk’s reward of shares granted for hitting the targets must be held for half a decade before being sold. If Tesla’s performance were to decline resulting in the shares falling, Musk would lose too.

Currently, Elon Musk currently owns 34,085,560 shares of Tesla. At the current share price, this translates to a value of $17, 349,550,040. At the beginning of the year, this stake was valued at $14,259,012,314. In a span of less than 14 days into the New Year, Musk’s net worth has gone up by over $3 billion.

What’s driving the surge?

Tesla’s rise above $500 also comes against a backdrop of positive news coming from the electric car maker. This includes a successful expansion into China. After breaking ground early last year, Tesla recently delivered the first vehicles made at the Shanghai factory. As the plant readies for full production, this is expected to boost sales significantly as the Chinese made vehicles will be significantly cheaper in the world’s largest EV market. For instance, tax breaks and subsidies  offered domestically-produced EVs reduce the price of a Model 3 by nearly $20,000.

Tesla sales have also increased dramatically. Earlier this year it was revealed that it delivered 50% more cars  in 2019 compared to 2018.

Elon Musk
Source: WSJ 

The remarkable rise in the price of the stock also coincides with Wall Street firm Oppenheimer hiking Tesla’s price target to $612 per share . This would give the electric car firm a market cap of over $106 billion if this stock price target is realized. This is not the highest price target for the stock though but it far above the average stock price target  of Tesla – $354.42. Currently, the consensus rating for the stock is HOLD.