By CCN: Following a banner quarter, one Wall Street analyst says that the US stock market is teetering on the brink of a cooling-off period. Luckily, prescient investors stand to reap a major windfall when it’s time to buy the dip.
Robert Sluymer: S&P 500 Will Erase a Month of Gains
As of Thursday’s close, Wall Street’s three major indices had all climbed by double-digits since the trading year began. The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 20 percent. The S&P 500 rallied 15.7 percent. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is disproportionately impacted by the US-China trade war, climbed 13.8 percent.
Earlier this week, Robert Sluymer raised eyebrows when he tweeted that the S&P 500 has stealthily begun a pullback that could knock as much as 5 percent off the broad consumer index.
Sluymer, a managing director and technical strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors, wrote on Twitter that the miniature meltdown had already begun:
“Today's $SPX one day reversal (not over yet) is noteworthy given we often (def not always) see reversal days around option expiration weeks. Our view is a 3-5% p/b has likely started. Weakness in Semis $KLAC will be an opportunity to add later in Q2.”
Today's $SPX one day reversal (not over yet) is noteworthy given we often (def not always) see reversal days around option expiration weeks. Our view is a 3-5% p/b has likely started. Weakness in Semis $KLAC will be an opportunity to add later in Q2. @fundstrat @WSintelligencer https://t.co/Ll2tA43pQI
— Robert Sluymer (@rsluymer) April 17, 2019
A 5 percent pullback from the S&P 500’s weekly close at 2,905.03 would reduce the index to 2,759.78. That would wipe about a month off the index’s recovery, as it has not closed below that mark since March 8.
An equivalent pullback for the stock market’s other two major indices would force the Dow Jones Industrial Average down to 25,231.56 and the Nasdaq to 7,598.18.
How to Buy This Stock Market Slip-Up
So how can investors profit from the pullback?
Capitalize on weakness in semiconductor stocks, which are now at their most overbought in years, according to CNBC.
The SMH semiconductor ETF has a relative strength index (RSI) of 70, its highest mark since the beginning of 2018. The last time the ETF moved into overbought territory, its stock subsequently plunged 14% in just three weeks.
Fundstrat's Sluymer said that KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC) - which supplies equipment to semiconductor producers - could provide an attractive investment opportunity once the S&P 500’s cooling-off period moves deeper into the second quarter.
Analysts expect KLAC to report earnings on May 6.
Another option - though not one explicitly recommended by Fundstrat - could be Nvidia, which has struggled to recover from last year’s fourth-quarter stock market sell-off. Nvidia stock is down almost 20 percent over the past year, while rival AMD has rallied by a staggering 150 percent.