Scientists Expect 4 Million COVID-19 Cases by May; Here’s How to Stay Healthy

Age and pre-existing medical conditions reduces survival rate against COVID-19. A change in lifestyle is needed to prevent conditions.
Posted in: HeadlinesOpinion
March 9, 2020 6:44 PM UTC
  • Scientists expect the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. to soar in the coming months.
  • Age and pre-existing medical conditions reduces a patient’s survival rate against COVID-19.
  • A drastic change in lifestyle is needed to prevent and possibly reverse conditions that can affect your survival against the virus.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases around the world have eclipsed the 110,000 mark. While the growth of infection is slowing down in China, the virus is rampaging across the globe.

Italy has overtaken South Korea with the second highest number of COVID-19 cases in the world. The United States may rank eighth with 583 cases. But as millions of test kits get distributed to commercial labs this week, I expect the number of confirmed cases to skyrocket.

The bad news is that the worst is yet to come. Scientists are expecting millions of COVID-19 cases in the next few months. In the U.S., the American Hospital Association (AHA) projects hundreds of thousands of deaths from this disease. Fortunately, you can increase your chances of surviving COVID-19 by making an effective lifestyle change

Scientists Expect Massive Hospitalizations As COVID-19 Cases Skyrocket in the U.S.

Healthcare professionals are already preparing for an onslaught of COVID-19 cases. A leaked AHA presentation reveals that hospitals are looking at 4.8 million admissions with 1.9 million cases requiring intensive care. This is based on the assumption that the number of infected patients can double within seven-to-ten days and a 5% hospitalization rate.

Leaked slide paints a grim picture for the U.S. | Source: Business Insider

Liz Specht, associate director of science and technology at The Good Food Institute, supports AHA’s estimates. The scientist expects a doubling of cases every six days. With a baseline of 2,000 cases as of Mar. 7, Specht sees the number infected patients exponentially rising to 1 million by April and 4 million by May 11.

The number of COVID-19 cases could reach millions in the U.S. | Source: Twitter

With a population of over 330 million, the U.S. is looking at an infection rate of 30%. That means three out of ten people are likely to be infected by COVID-19 in the coming months. Those infected with pre-existing conditions are more likely to die from the disease than healthy patients.

Older Patients Have a Higher Fatality Rate

Age is one of the biggest factors that can impact a patient’s survival rate against the virus, according to figures published by Worldometers. The site bases their estimates on two sources. The death rate is based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases:

The death rate all cases “is based on 72,314 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 in China as of Feb. 11.

Older patients, especially those above 70 years old, have a fatality rate of at least 8%. Fortunately, patients below 40 years old have a survival rate of 99.8%.

Fatality rate of COVID-19 according to age. | Source: Worldometers

Patients With Pre-Existing Medical Condition Have a Higher Death Rate

The death rate explodes for patients with a pre-existing medical condition. This is particularly true for people with cardiovascular disease and diabetes. The survival rate of COVID-19 patients suffering from either disease plummets to as low as 86.8%.

Fatality rate of COVID-19 patients with a pre-existing condition. | Source: Worldometers

If you have a 30% chance of contracting the virus, the best that you can do is to stay healthy. You can fight off the disease by taking precautionary measures but your survival will ultimately depend on your lifestyle.

How to Mitigate the Risk

The Centers for Disease Controls and Prevention (CDC) offers tips to keep the novel coronavirus at bay. These include washing your hands, staying away from large crowds and avoiding touching your mouth, eyes and nose.

Nevertheless, doctors say that these precautions won’t help if you are in close proximity with infected people and they cough or sneeze. You will likely contract the virus even if you’re the healthiest person on Earth.

Dr. David Agus said that people who are younger tend to show mild symptoms. If you’re suffering from pre-existing conditions such as diabetes and heart disease, your survival rate plummets regardless of age.

Some studies have revealed that eating a plant-based diet that includes whole grains, vegetables and fruits can work wonders against cardiovascular disease and type two diabetes. Eliminating these ailments makes one better equipped to handle a coronavirus infection.

Such studies should be taken with a grain of salt, as it doesn’t mean that every single person who focuses on eating plants more will necessarily be healthier and avoid the disease.

So if you’re younger than 50 years old, just stay as healthy as possible and consider a well-balanced diet. If you’re above 50 years old, the best you can do is to try and stay home as much as possible until we get a vaccine.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of

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Kiril Nikolaev, CFA @kirilnikk123

Kiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 6+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance and lives in Canada. Kiril’s current focus is on finance and cryptocurrencies. He also has his personal website, Investor Academy, where he teaches people about the basics of investing. He owns Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins but does not engage in short-term or day-trading. Get in touch with Kiril: Muck Rack, Email, Follow on Twitter