The tech sector has emerged as the star performer of 2024, propelling the Nasdaq to record highs while other major indices sputter. This outperformance is fueled by a confluence of factors, highlighting the tech industry’s resilience and potential for continued growth.
However, the telecom sector has faced a difficult first half of the year. Now, the market is looking for new investment options, and tech stocks still seem to be the best opportunity for investors.
Denise Chisholm, Director of Quantitative Market Strategy at Fidelity Viewpoints, highlighted earnings momentum as a key metric. For Chisholm, the recent uptick resembles a hockey stick, indicating strong positive momentum. This pattern is typically observed during economic recoveries, such as post-pandemic and post-2007-2009 bear market periods. Historically, such earnings recovery signals have been durable, leading to higher chances of continued earnings growth in the following years.
“Moreover, greater momentum usually correlates with stock advances and outperformance relative to the market. Currently, we observe top-quartile momentum, characterized by the steep rise of the hockey stick,” he said.
While the tech sector may have more room to grow, investors should balance this strong case for tech with some caveats.
One reason for bubble concerns is tech’s disproportionate performance compared to other sectors. By analyzing tech‘s performance relative to the S&P 500 and comparing it with other sectors, a persistent negative correlation emerges, meaning technology has been outperforming while other sectors, on average, have been underperforming.
Historically, this negative correlation signals a potential market broadening. Essentially, the market cannot be led solely by tech indefinitely.