Japan’s Service Robot Market To Triple by 2030 as Labor Shortages Deepen

• Japan’s service robot industry is set to triple in size by 2030.
• The country has become a hotbed for service robotics—from restaurants to nursing homes.
• Japan is struggling with a rapidly aging population, leaving huge labor gaps that need filling in critical areas.

Japan’s service robot industry is poised for explosive growth, with market value expected to reach more than ¥400 billion ($2.7 billion) by 2030—nearly three times its size in 2024—according to a recent report by research firm Fuji Keizai Co.

The surge comes as the nation grapples with an aging population and an increasing demand for automation in healthcare and other service sectors.

With fewer workers available to support the elderly and fill labor gaps, robots are being developed to fill critical roles.

Japan’s Aging Population

Japan’s embrace of robotics is driven by necessity. More than 28% of its population is over 65, a figure projected to rise to 38.4% by 2065.

The labor shortage, which is expected to cause a shortfall of 11 million by 2040, has pushed companies to develop innovative service robots capable of performing tasks traditionally handled by human workers.

From humanoid assistants in nursing homes to autonomous cleaners in shopping malls, Japan is accelerating efforts to integrate robotics into daily life.

By 2018, the national government had spent over $300 million funding robot research and development.

Some industries have massively benefited from going all-in on robot workers.

For example, Chinese restaurant giant Skylark currently uses approximately 3,000 cat robots to serve food to customers in its venues, Bloomberg reported .

Skylark currently employs over 4,000 staff aged 65 and older, up from just over 2,000, in 2020.

The use of machines has reportedly led its labor costs, in conjunction with revenue, to drop to 32.6%, in 2024, from 40.2%, in 2021.

Service Robot Challenges in Japan

Service robots are increasingly being used in every facet of Japan, including caregiving.

Japan faces a shortage of caregivers, which the government estimates will be 570,000, by 2040. To address this, government subsidies have encouraged the adoption of robotic technologies in nursing care facilities.

Japan’s ministry labeled the need for robot help in priority areas of nursing care, including helping carers provide bathing and aid in bodily functions.

However, Peter Wood, Chief Technology Officer of Spectrum Search, told CCN that despite Japan’s rapid growth, massive hurdles remain for the widespread integration of robotics.

“One of the biggest hurdles is ensuring the reliability and safety of service robots. Consumers and businesses need to trust that robots will perform their tasks without failure, and that’s a high bar to clear,” Wood said. “Robotics companies must invest heavily in testing and improving these systems to ensure they’re foolproof in real-world environments.”

James Wright, research associate at the Alan Turing Institute, published a 2023 MIT report which painted a troubling picture of the challenging nature of introducing robots into the care industry.

The report cites a 2019 national survey of over 9,000 elder-care institutions in Japan found that only around 10% reported having introduced a care robot.

A 2021 study found that out of a sample of 444 people who provided home care, only 2% had experience with a care robot. Some research also suggests that when robots are introduced, they are only used for a short time before being removed.

“Accepting the idea of robots is one thing; being willing to interact with them in real life is quite another,” Wright wrote. “What’s more, their real-life abilities trail far behind the expectations shaped by their hyped-up image.”

“It’s something of an inconvenient truth for the robot enthusiasts that despite the publicity, government support, and subsidies—and the real technological achievements of engineers and programmers—robots don’t really feature in any major aspect of most people’s daily lives in Japan, including elder care,” he said.

Japan vs. China

Although China has emerged as a dominant force in the robotics industry over the past few years, Japan is leading in growth estimates for service robots.

Japan’s service robot market is set to hit ¥400 billion ($2.7 billion) by 2030, while China’s commercial service robot market is expected to reach nearly $1.5 billion by the end of the decade, according to Frost and Sullivan estimates.

However, China is still a strong contender and has dramatically ramped up its efforts to become a world leader.

In 2023, China recorded 470 robots per 10,000 employees, surpassing Germany and Japan, according to China Briefing.

Following the global success of AI model DeepSeek, Chinese economic officials announced a state-backed fund to fuel advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence, further cementing its commitment to technological innovation.