Harris vs. Trump: What the 2024 Election Means for AI Investment

Key Takeaways

• Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have marked out divergent positions on AI.
• Trump claims his deregulatory agenda will spur growth.
• However, many industry insiders support Harris.

As the U.S. presidential election looms, the American AI industry is at a crossroads. Which path voters take on Nov. 5 could determine investment trends for the next four years. 

Supporters of Donald Trump believe his deregulatory agenda will drive innovation and help the U.S. maintain its AI leadership.

On the other hand, many in the industry support Kamala Harris’ vision for AI policy, which could provide much-needed stability in the years ahead.

Ideological Differences  

In many ways, Democrats’ and Republicans’ differing stances on AI reflect longstanding views on the role of government and the extent to which it should intervene in private enterprise.  

If she wins the presidency, Harris is expected to follow the path of the Biden administration, which sought to establish a federal position on AI safety outlined in an Executive Order last year.

Meanwhile, Trump has vowed to repeal Biden’s order, with Republicans arguing that it “hinders AI Innovation and imposes radical left-wing ideas on the development of this technology.” In its place, his platform has promised to support AI development “rooted in free speech and human flourishing.”

With ideology forming the basis of the two candidates’ perspectives on AI policy, a Harris presidency would most likely emphasize AI safety and the gradual expansion of the regulatory perimeter.

On the other hand, Trump supports limiting the scope of regulation and expanding First Amendment protections to AI-generated content.  

However, given Trump’s protectionist trade policies, the debate can’t be reduced to a matter of more versus less free markets. American AI firms that rely on international markets and talent might face challenges under a Trump presidency. And some high-profile figures in the space have questioned the notion that regulation inhibits growth.

What Do AI Leaders Say?

While Elon Musk’s passionate support for Trump marks a break from the norm, Silicon Valley moguls have always been involved in politics. In the past, they typically cheered on their favorite candidates from the sidelines.

Among AI leaders, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has donated money to at least one Republican and hundreds of Democrats, including Kamala Harris, during her 2019 bid for the party’s presidential nomination. 

The feeling among many in the space is that deregulation isn’t a silver bullet, especially if it leaves the U.S. out of sync with the rest of the world.

Highly regulated industries have been characteristically risk-averse in adopting AI so far. However, as Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez pointed out recently, what companies want is for Washington to provide “guardrails” to help them advance more quickly, not repeal existing legislation. 

Maintaining Global Leadership

According to a recent survey of 500 technology industry business leaders, 74% think the results of the upcoming election will significantly impact the United States’ ability to maintain its global leadership.

Areas they expect to be most affected by the vote include cybersecurity and data protection, AI and machine learning, and user data and content oversight.

Regardless of who wins in November, 82% of business leaders said their company intends to increase investment in AI by at least 50% in the next year. 

This paints a positive picture of the sector’s ability to weather uncertainty and reflects a widespread belief that even political volatility won’t be able to upend growth in such a booming sector.