Key Takeaways
PayPal beat Wall Street’s earnings expectations in Q1 but missed on revenue, leaving analysts divided over the stock’s long-term trajectory.
Despite macroeconomic uncertainty and tense U.S.-China trade relations, the payments firm stuck to its full-year profit guidance.
The company is now betting on Venmo to drive future growth, targeting over $2 billion in annual revenue by 2027 as it pushes the app beyond peer-to-peer payments.
Analysts see potential for long-term gains, with projections stretching out to 2031.
PayPal’s adjusted earnings rose 23% in the first quarter to $1.33 per share, beating analyst expectations of $1.16. Revenue came in at $7.79 billion, up 1% from a year ago but slightly below the $7.85 billion forecast.
Monthly active accounts increased 2% to 436 million. Total payment volume (TPV) reached $417.2 billion, just under the projected $418 billion.
Branded TPV now includes Pay with Venmo, which saw a 20% year-over-year revenue increase, though PayPal didn’t provide exact figures.
Transaction margin dollars climbed 7% to $3.7 billion, ahead of the $3.62 billion estimate.
The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, expecting adjusted earnings per share between $4.95 and $5.10, and transaction margin dollars between $15.2 and $15.4 billion.
PayPal CEO Alex Chriss says the company expects Venmo t o bring in over $2 billion in annual revenue by 2027, signaling a major shift in how the once peer-to-peer payment app is being positioned as a fully monetized financial product.
Chriss shared the projection at a recent investor event, describing Venmo as central to PayPal’s growth strategy moving forward.
With 90 million U.S. users, Venmo has become a household name, but PayPal wants to push deeper into mainstream commerce.
The company has partnered with major brands like Starbucks, DoorDash, JetBlue, Instacart, and MoonPay to extend Venmo’s utility beyond casual money transfers.
Part of that plan includes expanding Venmo’s debit card usage in 2025, with new features to encourage in-store spending and keep more funds within the app’s ecosystem.
PayPal is also working to make its “Pay with Venmo” service more appealing to merchants. It says its adoption jumped 50% last quarter.
Chriss said the push will help drive more transaction volume through Venmo, making it a stronger contributor to PayPal’s bottom line.
PYPL’s stock price could substantially increase over the next five years. Analysts project a potential rise from the current price to around $657 by the end of 2026.
Depending on the company’s ability to execute its growth strategies effectively, it could reach upwards of $1,171 by 2031.
PayPal’s stock opened in 2025 at $85.35. It is currently trading at $66.15, reflecting a 22% decline since the start of the year.
Some analysts projected that PayPal’s price would be $80.90 by the end of 2025. This would mark a 22% year-over-year decrease but a potential rise of 20% from its current price. Mid-2025 estimates put the stock at $74.65.
PayPal is expected to reach $89.38 by the first half of 2026, and by the second half, it could climb an additional $5.95 to end the year at $102.58, representing a 44% increase from the current level.
The stock is expected to start 2027 at $102.58, rise to $109.62 in the first half of the year, and finish 2027 at $111.34, a 68% gain compared to its current price.
PayPal’s price is forecasted to rise from $146.05 to $157.00, a 137% increase over the next five years.