According to data from gambling platform PredictIt, a surprising candidate has emerged as the betting favorite to win the 2020 Democratic primary: Kamala Harris.
Harris reportedly delivered a beatdown to former Vice President Joe Biden at the recent debates, which has many Democrats buzzing that she may be the assumptive nominee.
Currently, it’ll cost you about 23 cents to bet on either Biden or Harris. That changes as people cast their bets. To take a contrary bet costs a lot more. It costs about 78 cents to bet against Kamala Harris or Joe Biden. Winning shares pay out at $1.
Betting against either one might be foolhardy, as they both have a strong shot. But they’re far from the only contenders, and the race is young.
Harris is currently in the lead by an indeterminate amount, with Biden trailing.
The rules of the market are simple enough:
“The individual identified in the question shall win the 2020 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.”
The market carries little influence in politics, but the number of people now betting on Harris does speak volumes about the way people feel.
The Democratic party was the first to nominate a black man; will it now be the first to appoint a black woman? Who would be her running mate?
Or might it go the other way, with Kamala Harris playing vice president for Joe Biden?
At this point, she may not have to do so. She may be moving on enough momentum to win by herself.
Joe Biden, however, is viewed as the establishment candidate with the moderate views to win over enough conservatives who may not feel represented in a Trump presidency. Making Trump a one-term president would set a precedent on how the American public handles its billionaire politicians.
At present, it seems Democrats have a fighting chance.
Its chances may be dampened by the weight of controversial progressives such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who advocate – or at least flirt with – socialism.
Bernie Sanders remains a contender for the nomination, as well. The crossover between Sanders and Trump voters should not go unnoticed. Both have a populist streak, which leads to a certain mindset among supporters.
Wherever we land, you can put your money where your mouth is this election season.
Last modified: July 2, 2020 8:25 PM UTC