Home / Markets News & Opinions / Dow Outlook: The Stock Market is Tumbling Towards a Critical Level

Dow Outlook: The Stock Market is Tumbling Towards a Critical Level

Last Updated September 23, 2020 1:07 PM
Francois Aure
Last Updated September 23, 2020 1:07 PM

A tumultuous day of trade for the US stock market on Tuesday has the Dow Jones looking vulnerable at the open of trade Wednesday.

The bears sold a rally in the Dow late, and a test of critical congestion/support around the 200-day moving average looks increasingly probable as momentum turns to the downside in the short term. Wednesday could bring further volatility as Jerome Powell speaks and the FOMC minutes are released. 

Dow Jones Roiled By China Woes On Tuesday

Tuesday was all about the trade war as the Trump administration waited until it had a large delegation of Chinese Officials in town to unleash a double barrel of bans and blacklistings. A clear effort from the Trump administration to stick the knife in right before critical trade talks are due to start. The impact on the Dow Jones was evident, as the market dived more than 300 points at the open of trade before chopping higher and then back down once again.

Dow Jones, Stock Market, Trump, China
A series of China-related bombshells rocked the Dow on Tuesday ahead of critical trade talks. Source- Yahoo Finance

Midday, some optimistic bulls bought into hopes of progress in the trade war after the Chinese delegation was noted to be much more substantial than before. In addition, some dovishness  from the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell helped the Dow climb to within 100 points of its opening price. However, late in the day, a visa ban on certain Chinese officials  landed like a ton of bricks, crushing the index down to just above its lows for the day. 

Dow Technicals: 200 Day Moving Average Still Pointing Higher

While retail traders are probably eyeing the fact that the market has seen its first rally for a few days crushed immediately, long term investors may still be optimistic. The 200-day moving average  has clearly created some congestion, as bulls have used it as a target to reload long positions. This critical long term momentum indicator is also still pointing to the upside, providing a little optimism for trend followers, though the 50 day MA’s downward slant has accelerated.

Dow Jones, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Jerome Powell, FOMC Minutes
The 200 day moving average still looks to be providing support for the Dow Jones. Source- Yahoo Finance


Jim Cramer: Stock Market Cruising For A Bruising On Double Top

CNBC’s mad money host Jim Cramer showcased a bearish chart for the broader S&P 500 which includes many Dow staples like Apple  and Microsoft , may be facing a big sell-off after forming the same double top visible on the Dow Jones weekly charts.

The Day Ahead: Wednesday Brings More Powell and Critical Fed Minutes

Tomorrow brings two critical risk events  for the US stock market that will not be driven solely by random China or trade war-related headlines. The first will be another speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at 11 am (ET), his third remarks in a row over a three-day media blitz. At 2 pm, the FOMC minutes are released in what could be the most important release of the day. Dow bulls will look nervously for signs of hawkish rebellion  among the Fed members.