The Dow Jones cautiously inched up as Day 1 of the G20 Summit unfolded in Osaka, Japan. The US stock market and global financial markets have been careening uneasily for weeks amid trade tensions between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
However, the escalating trade war rhetoric has softened a bit in recent days ahead of the G20 Summit. There’s now growing optimism that the United States and China will reach some sort of agreement that’ll stem a global stock market crash.
According to the White House, Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet for 90 minutes at the G20, a gathering of 19 nations and the European Union. Together, the G20 economies account for 80% of world trade.
President Trump told reporters that he expects a “productive” meeting with Chinese leader Xi.
“At a minimum, it will be productive. We’ll see what happens and what comes out of it.”
Tensions are high because Trump has imposed tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports in retaliation for decades of intellectual-property theft and a longstanding trade imbalance. Xi reacted by imposing retaliatory tariffs on the United States.
Trade tensions have lasted longer than anticipated because both Trump and Xi have dug in their heels. The intransigence has resulted in a flailing Dow Jones and a nervous global stock market.
However, the long-term outlook is positive because the two biggest world economies need each other, says Krishna Memani, the CIO at OppenheimerFunds, which has $213 billion in assets under management.
“Trade is an open issue. But we will find a resolution because of the data flow that we are seeing, which is that the Chinese economy is slowing down meaningfully and the US economy is slowing down meaningfully. That gives the politicians significant incentive to come to a consensus.”
Crypto Regulations to be Broached at G20
World leaders are also expected to discuss international regulations for cryptocurrencies at the G20, as CCN reported.
Currently, there are no uniform transnational cryptocurrency regulations. For example, while China and South Korea have banned initial coin offerings, Japan still allows regulated ICOs.
Japan’s financial regulators are considering introducing new rules aimed at bitcoin exchanges after the country was roiled by money-laundering and hacking scandals.
In March 2019, experts warned the UN Security Council that North Korea has hacked at least five Asian cryptocurrency exchanges and stolen more than $571 million.
The experts explained that North Korea is stealing crypto to offset the financial hardships it’s suffering due to crushing U.S. economic sanctions.
While stock market analysts are wringing their hands over a potential Dow Jones bloodbath, some Wall Street veterans say the Dow could spike to 30,000 within the next 12 months.
Skybridge Capital’s Troy Gayeski says investors should dismiss the nonstop barrage of doomsday scenarios related to the US-China trade talks. Why? Because he says the sensationalistic headlines are detached from reality.
“Even though some of the headlines in the short term are negative, you can’t get too bearish based on the recent trajectory of China-US trade talks. You have to still focus on the strength of the domestic U.S. economy, which is rather robust.”
Other Wall Street veterans share Gayeski’s confident outlook. Jim Awad is the managing director of Clearstead Advisors and a 50-year investment professional. He says the Dow Jones is poised for growth for the remainder of 2019 — barring a catastrophe.
“I think we can make new highs. The window could be when corporations report second-quarter earnings in July and August and give third-quarter outlooks. We can make a new high in the markets somewhere between July 30 and the end of the year if there are no surprise events or wounds.”
View our Dow Jones price chart here.
Last modified: June 23, 2020 7:33 PM UTC