Stock market futures just got a huge “Trump bump” as the president looks increasingly likely to secure re-election in 2020. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures are up 300 points after a chaotic and embarrassing night for the Democrats in Iowa.
An “inconsistency” in Iowa’s caucus voting system leaves the Democrats without a clear winner on Tuesday [CNN]. The debacle all-but hands Trump the momentum going into the 2020 presidential election and the stock markets are rejoicing [Jim Cramer on Twitter].
“I think the complete disarray of the Iowa Democratic Caucus and the acknowledgment that in 48 hours impeachment is over is playing a big role in the strength of the market” – Jim Cramer, CNBC.
The Democrat embarrassment in Iowa leaves Trump and the Republicans revelling in victory. The Republicans emerge united while the Democrats missed a huge opportunity to drive momentum.
Trump supporters will use the Iowa disaster to mock the Democrat campaign and discredit whichever candidate does emerge as the winner. Members of the Trump campaign are already suggesting it was “rigged” [Twitter] and rallying Trump supporters to question the whole system [Fox News].
“Democrat party meltdown. They can’t even run a caucus and they want to run the government. No thank you” – Brad Parscale, campaign manager. In a later statement, he added, “It would be natural for people to doubt the fairness of the process.”
It’s a tried-and-tested Trump technique that strengthens his base. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign appeared to admit as much.
“With every passing minute that there is a delay, we worry that the process will lose credibility.”
Trump’s momentum coming out of the Iowa caucus is crucial for the Dow Jones.
It’s no secret the stock market favours a Trump presidency. Wall Street players have fallen over themselves to predict disaster under the Democrats while Trump uses the Dow Jones as a proxy for his own success.
The events in Iowa gift Trump the momentum going into 2020 and the stock market is riding the wave.
At the time of writing, the Democrats still haven’t announced a winner from the Iowa caucuses. We’re expecting an announcement later in the day on Tuesday.
Sanders, Warren, Biden, and Klobuchar all took the opportunity to boast about the strength of their internal numbers. While former mayor South Bend, Ind. Pete Buttigieg pretty much declared victory [Telegraph].
“By all indications, we are going to on New Hampshire victorious.”
No matter who emerges victorious, the winner has already missed the window of opportunity. The crucial Iowa momentum that once helped propel Obama to the White House has gone and the Democrats are on the back foot.