Hypron, creator of the 4-way exchange split page for serious data junkies, told me that Coinspot.ru, a Russian cryptocurrency blog, is translating and sharing my articles.
Hypron noticed a lot of new traffic was coming from CCN (I linked to his useful page in a recent article) and the Coinspot version of that same article… It’s pretty funny to see my stuff in Russian! Also, you guys (and my new crypto comrades) should tip Hypron some coin so he’s encouraged to build more useful tools for our community.
For those still outside, 0.1 BTC may seem steep for some charts and words… Well, false modesty aside, I’ve made some profitable trading calls lately – and there’s plenty more where that came from.
But beyond weekly market videos, timely updates on relevant news and tradeable setup alerts, we have further plans in store. The Club is researching an exciting investment opportunity which dovetails beautifully with active trading and Bitcoin’s disruptive nature. If the risks prove to be acceptable, then this information alone will be more than worth the price of admission.
OK, time for some charts!
First up the hourly as of 6 hours ago. A lot happening on this chart. When I took the screenshot there was a pennant developing, which has since broken to the upside to test 850. This 850 level has acted as major Support / Resistance (mostly the latter) since the drop from 995.
The test of 850 failed with a large pinbar, leading to a selloff that took us nearly back down to 820, the 0.236 Fib. This is very similar to my bull flag prediction and the breakout to the 0.618 Fib back to the 0.5 Fib; a very nice setup for a quick profit on the lower timeframes. I was too busy with another chart I’m going to show you to trade this, but check out the developments as of about 2 minutes ago:
Price now seems to be stabilising. If we don’t colour too far outside the up-sloping blue trendline before heading back to 850 for another go, that’ll be fairly bullish!
Alternatively, we could come back down again for a bounce off 800, although it seems the market is consolidating in an up-the-steps manner which hints at an uptrend forming.
Either way, I’m thinking of taking a very light long position (1/6 of my trading capital), either at a fall back to 800 or on a push through 850.
The reason for trading it so lightly is that, as yet, we have no confirmation from the higher timeframes. Consider the Daily:
Bitcoin price fell from 910, rolled to a slow stop yesterday and now begins to test resistance. This could be the the uptrend (since the 382 low) starting to resume, although on the negative side I’m concerned about the last high… It printed as a rectangle (or triple) top pattern (as detailed in Charts 1 and 2 above) and was considerably lower than the previous high (where I took 1st profit). This suggests we’re still in a consolidation phase, so trends within this “inside fractal / contracting volatility zone,” especially on lower timeframes, remain quite speculative.
To sum up: on the daily, I am still undecided as to direction which is why I consider a long position based on the Hourly action (and MACD cross) to be pretty risky. An ideal trade has higher timeframe price action, patterns and indicators all aligned in its favour.
Speaking of alingment, here is the curious, cryptic CryptoCoaster Conjuction chart, comrades:
As I describe it on my updatable Trading View study:
An angled resistance trendline drawn from 1st peak (ATH) to 2nd peak (rally failure) coincides with a horizontal trendline over next major resistance at 1000.
A trendline passing from the inital rally’s 2nd leg peak (roughly halfway up the total rise) to the last fractal high also coincides. (This trendline is arguably “retro-fitted.”)
Timing the double low at the ~380 level gives us nearly 29 days.
Doubling 29 days gives us 58 days, which is the length from last 380 valley to the trendline conjunction. This means the conjunction happens on Wednesday the 12th of March.
A curious double coincidence of time and geometry!
Also interesting is an arc drawn between the 380 lows and up to 1163 high (green and orange arc).
On the outside left, this green arc supports the initial rise from 378 low.
An arc of the same time period and height offset forward (orange and red arc) acts as support on the 2nd leg up and resistance on the 2nd leg down.
The market is full of intriguing puzzles like this. Might arcs predict the price path of the next spike and dump? Why does the peak of the Silk Road low extended through the next trough almost intersect the dump’s low? What are the odds of two major resistance lines (plus another more questionable trendline) intersecting on twice the “bubble’s” low-to-low phase’s date? Will something unusual happen on the conjunction date? Could it be the much-anticipated break through 1000?
All tough questions…
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Last modified (UTC): January 15, 2014 17:35