In a groundbreaking (but entirely predictable) shift in U.S. politics, former Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden has slipped to third in the nominee standings behind Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg .
As Biden’s campaign sputters, billionaire Bloomberg’s surge is notable and sets up a possible dream scenario for the Dow Jones this election season if he can take on Trump.
Make no mistake, the stock market’s least preferred candidate, Bernie Sanders, is still the frontrunner for the Democrats. By all accounts, he has a strong chance of winning in Iowa (if they ever get done counting the votes) and typically does well in New Hampshire.
Despite putting in no effort there whatsoever, Mike Bloomberg has come out of nowhere to usurp Biden as the top option for moderate Democrats. Bloomberg appeals to purple states and centrist Republicans and may also have an edge over the more left-wing Sanders and possibly Donald Trump too.
Economist Bill Diviney at ABN AMRO noted recently that the unconventional strategies being employed by several Democratic candidates do not necessarily count them out after a weak performance in Iowa . Highlighting Bloomberg’s focus on “Super Tuesday,” Diviney said:
Historically, candidates who come first in Iowa – and/or in next week’s New Hampshire primary – usually go on to win the nomination. A glaring exception to this was Bill Clinton in 1992, and this year’s race could also prove to be less predictable given the differing strategies (for instance, Michael Bloomberg skipping Iowa/New Hampshire to focus on Super Tuesday) and the volatile opinion polling in the race so far.
While Dow investors are excited about the prospect of four more years of Trump’s max stimulus plan for the stock market, Michael Bloomberg is also a desirable option.
In fact, Bloomberg’s stance on open trade could theoretically make him a preferable candidate to Trump if you are primarily worried about your 401K. Dow bulls have learned to overcome (rather than enjoy) President Trump’s hawkish approach to tariffs and the fully globalist Bloomberg has no interest whatsoever in pursuing those tactics.
If ever there was a candidate at the beating heart of the financial establishment, it’s Mike Bloomberg, and the Dow Jones would likely benefit from his close relationship with Wall Street.
It doesn’t hurt either that there is no question about Bloomberg’s extreme wealth. Currently, with a net worth of around $60 billion, Bloomberg is among the top 15 wealthiest people in the world . By comparison, generous estimates of Trump’s wealth put him at around 700th in the world .
Investors like a business agenda and Mayor Bloomberg unquestionably has a better resume as a businessman no matter which way you spin it. If he can continue to gain on Sanders, pro-business billionaire vs. pro-business “billionaire” could be on the cards for the Dow Jones in November.