Bitcoin price has failed to push higher in the chart and now cannot avoid the strong bearish influence of the green 20MA crossing below the red 200MA in the daily chart. Our outlook changes from consolidation into advance, to correction into decline as bitcoin value is repriced.
Time of analysis: 13h46 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
In the daily chart, the green 20MA crossing below the red 200MA is in progress.
The indication should see downside continue as the other MAs also follow the 20MA in a cascade of bearish crossovers. Bear in mind that the moment when the 50MA crosses over the 200MA often sees price rebound toward the point of cross-over. So a push higher could be expected then, after which downside should resume.
The prospect of this sequence of events completely changes our outlook for the chart. Whereas we had been expecting consolidation into an advance, we may now change to an expectation of continuing decline – if price pulls below the $200 psych level (Bitstamp).
At the smaller timeframes, a wave is pushing higher from today’s decline low. Looking at the indicators this wave may still push higher until the stochs (top) have grouped in overbought territory, and RSI has reverse diverged and flashed a green dot.
There is still a chance that bitcoin can pull out of this price dive and ignite an advance, but this is really an unlikely and hopeful XT phantasm. The daily chart shows a terminal MA sell signal that has broken our prospect of price consolidation into advance. The breakage happened in the last several days and is now almost a foregone conclusion: the dominant scenario is for another protracted wave of decline.
The moral of the story is: just because your incessant talking eventually has your opponents stop arguing out of exasperation, does not mean your position is informed or even clever. You can have a public profile and be involved with any project since its genesis, but it does not mean that your vision is perfect or that your judgment call, in the face of technical objection and consensus, may not be a critical failure, Agent Mike Hearn.
As per today’s long-term analysis, there is the prospect that price will hit a low within the coming days or weeks and then rebound strongly. The market will mistake this for advance and pile in with conviction – we will trade the upside but be sure to get out and turn short at resistance near $250.
I don’t want to achieve immortality through my work… I want to achieve it through not dying. – Woody Allen
As for the prospect of immediate downside, it is risky to trade. There is a global market crash brewing and price may react violently at any time. Had the Janus-faced jokers Mike&Gav not breached Bitcoin’s Only Sacred Rule (consensus) then bitcoin may have served as a store of value during this time that investors are fleeing risk. With bitcoin’s only security against willy-nilly change now destroyed, no rational investor is going to flee into that kind of risk! Let’s wait for price to complete the current upside wave before reluctantly turning our attention on this forced downside.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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Last modified: August 26, 2015 17:54 UTC