Bitcoin Trading Above Support

August 3, 2015 22:13 UTC

The recent failed attempt on $300, followed by decline back to support, implies that Bitcoin trading has abandoned immediate advance and will meander – perhaps lower – before trying to advance the price again.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 05h26 UTC

Bitstamp 4-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of, earlier today:

The 4-hour chart indicators show that the recent decline has become oversold.

MACD has turned back up, RSI reverse divergence compounded and the stochastics have now left their lower range extreme. Decline is unlikely to resume immediately, but it does appear incomplete.

As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, concern remains for the absence of divergence signals in MACD and the stochastics. The size (degree) of the waves that have unfolded since the $318 high should register divergence at this timeframe.

One interpretation is that a later wave – still to come – will haul sufficient downside to manifest the divergence that will set up a new wave of advance. This interpretation is based on the fact that the recent upside wave to near $300 does not show an advancing wave structure, but a corrective structure. The present wave of decline, similarly, has not made downside progress and hence we have reason to believe that a price “triangle” or consolidating 5-wave sequence is unfolding. Its final wave should be a declining wave and should conclude at the present support floor or lower – potentially at the purple 800MA near $250.

Wave C may be incomplete and achieve the drop after an upward correction (see an example around 22 July) or a larger corrective Wave D may unfold to near $290.

According to this wave count, a wave to the upside in the coming days should be interpreted as corrective and is unlikely to pass $300 before sinking back to present levels and, eventually, lower.

I’ve found you’ve got to look back at the old things and see them in a new light. – John Coltrane


The pullback from $300 has returned price to a prior support and the significant 4-hour 200-period moving average. The market’s next move is anyone’s guess – even the market seems unsure. Chart technicals imply consolidation and at least one additional low is required for the upside to open again.

Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin price chart.

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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

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Last modified: August 13, 2015 13:26 UTC


Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.