Bitcoin trading saw the bulls make a second unsuccessful attempt on the $380 and 2480 CNY level today. Frustrated, the market sold off to support at $355 and 2300 CNY.
Time of analysis: 14h30 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price was sold off and found support at the level of the previous consolidation that acted as spring-board for the attack on $400 (Bitstamp) and 2480 CNY.
The chart setup and outcome reminds of early 2015 when price rallied (parabolically) above $300 in January but then failed to get above $300 in March – despite a relentless effort by the bulls. Subsequently, price retreated – failed on a second attempt – and fell away strongly – similar to today’s sell-off.
The wave down is a typical bitcoin wave C sell-off in a textbook Elliott impulse wave. Note the 5 subwaves with wave 3 making up the bulk of the move. The strong decline must have had many traders jumping into the wave, but the risks are many: Where would it stop? Is a halt just a correction or is it a reversal? How deep will it correct?
The benefit of hindsight shows us a large wave down that was signaled in the 5min chart, yes, but there are few signaled trades in the 5min chart that cover more than $5 price? If you review the chart, you’ll agree that it’s fewer than what the effort justifies.
Price has, for now, avoided avoided covering the distance to the red 1-hour 200MA at the red arrow. Yet, the market is attempting to trade price above the Fib line (origin: Jan 2015). Holding above it should support price for the moment, but the larger move down seems incomplete. A return to the support floor (should it transpire) will be signaled in the 4hr chart. For now, best to sit out.
If you seized the opportunity and profited from today’s decline – congratulations. If you feel that you missed an opportunity – don’t hold on to regret – there is always another opportunity in the market. Guaranteed.
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