Bitcoin trading is slowly ticking price up as profit takers close their short positions. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic without taking a strong position until we see confirmation of the larger trend.
Time of analysis: 04h27 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The price pattern since the truncated low is unusual. The waves are well articulated although the price pattern still resembles the curving-then-drop, as circled elsewhere in the chart. It is not suggested that the current pattern will do this, but merely that it might. For now MACD (bottom) is holding above its zero line, and RSI has reverse diverged to the the downside – forcing an updraft.
Although our longer-term analysis points to a high probability of advance from the support floor, we’re still assuming that the present pattern is corrective. Remaining cautious keeps us on the lookout for signs of potential decline into a larger Bitcoin-in-Crisis downtrend.
Despite the wave pushing higher in the chart, there is a constant large volume of sell orders just above price. The fact that these orders are being bought up in the chart, implies bullish sentiment.
Another potential scenario, and one that is common in the Bitcoin chart, is that the market may buy price upwards through the mass of sell orders and then lose momentum as all the buyers have spent their ammunition. The subsequent gradual decline back toward the support floor would be the final tapering end of a base wave. Should this scenario come to pass we could expect the classic xbt.social buy signal at the base wave’s terminal point where it launches into advance.
Patient waiting is all we have to do.
Time of analysis: 14h55 UTC
As we wait for price action to unfold, various scenarios are becoming evident. One of them resembles a price pattern from 23-27 February 2015. In that case price was, was my friend Vishnu likes to say, consolidating “like a boss”. Subsequent to forming the base wave, price then advanced – also like a boss.
If we get this outcome then $250 will be a target, followed soon by $300 and other attractive numbers.
However, there is also a declining scenario. Now that XT has been “released” – officially let loose – and supporters of this expansionist proposition feel more confident to air their views, we have gotten a sense of the angry and negative element in the Bitcoin community – it has always been there – but not as vocal. This negativity, as an Elliott wave analysis reveals, had been the driving force behind the year long decline. People sing the praises of Bitcoin, but behind closed doors they have been cynically selling it down.
Bitcoin’s fundamental value had not changed during the course of 2014 and adoption had objectively increased, yet price was sold down incessantly as a result of a dominant negative sentiment toward Bitcoin. Ironically, this same aggressive faction is now calling for expansion, and deploying renegade nodes, to increase adoption that will supposedly lead to higher exchange rates. Talk about putting the cart before the horse while you’re killing the goose that lays the golden eggs!
Price may still continue lower if the XT cause escalates and negative mood persists.
Analysis will be updated at 15h00 UTC
It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. – George Soros
Friday trade often meanders as a result of end-of-week re-organisation of positions. The predominant activity since yesterday has been buying, despite a large volume of sell orders. If the majority of short sellers decide to start closing position at market price today (as opposed to using stop orders) we may see a strong surge develop. Otherwise, price may just continue slowly ticking upward, with intermittent downward corrections.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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Last modified (UTC): August 21, 2015 17:16