Although not making strong upside progress, persistent buying is pushing bitcoin price higher. Bitstamp and Bitfinex had failed to decline to support as the rest of the exchange charts had done. Price direction will remain uncertain until more confirmations are found.
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price today advanced back to the previous support zone in the low $270s (Bitfinex). The CNY exchanges are grappling with their 1700 CNY psych level and the 1-hour 200MA is just overhead.
The structure of the current wave to the upside is not impulsive. In other words it is not going to keep advancing to $300 and beyond. Its structure is corrective – readers can see the zigzagging structure of the wave – especially near its base. Such choppy price action is not characteristic of an impulse wave which tends to draw large clean waves with minimal overlap (see, for example, the price waves made from $250 to $300 during July).
Yet, the size of this upside corrective wave is unusual. It no longer seems part of the preceding declining wave. This forces us to review our outlook: we have to entertain the possibility that price will not return to $250 but may either consolidate around this established $270/$275 support & resistance zone, or make a large zigzag (three subwaves) to above $280.
Why, out of all the exchanges, only Bitstamp and Bitfinex failed to decline to their 100MA remains a mystery. Either they’re still going to do so, or last Saturday’s low was truncated in these two charts. Our outlook that the decline is incomplete remains true for these two exchanges charts, but the rest – especially the yuan exchanges – are steadily pushing higher.
Taking small losses is part of the game. Taking large losses can take you out of the game. – Doug Kass
There is no recommendation to be made in the current bitcoin price chart. The yuan exchanges and futures charts are reaching for the upside, but the Bitstamp and Bitfinex charts imply a move lower is due. When in doubt, stay out.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume earlier today:
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Last modified: August 13, 2015 20:30 UTC