Bitcoin price had fallen away from a resistance level near $250 and 1600 CNY yesterday, and earlier today overshot to the downside by breaching two support levels near $245 and 1573 CNY. At the time of writing, price has returned to the upside and the market must now decide which way.
Time of analysis: 07h27 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
An hourly candle breached the trendline that has supported price for several weeks, at its overlap with the 1hr 200MA. This is a bearish signal and potentially the end of the strained uptrend.
MACD (not shown) peeked below a support level that was formed by the uptrend and RSI (second from top) has broken below a similar support level.
The most significant indication in the chart, for us, is the break below the 200MA (red). A review of 1-hour chart history shows that, on an initial break of the 200MA after a trend change, price tends to return to it (retest) before resuming the new trend. In this case, we wait for price to move back up to (or above) the 1hr 200MA, and on a drop back below it we have the entry conditions for a short trade. However, the recent erratic market behavior may reattempt the upside once more, so patience is called for.
Downside support levels that present targets are $240 and $220 (1528 and 1450 CNY in the BTC-China and Huobi charts).
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. – John Templeton
The position of price between resistance at $250 and support at $240 has the bulls and bears locked in a battle for control of price direction. The resulting price swings are volatile, so traders should hold back with opening positions until price breaks decisively across one barrier or the other.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
What do readers think? Please comment below.
Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN.LA. A Global Economic Outlook report is published every Monday.
The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Images from Shutterstock.
Last modified (UTC): October 21, 2015 10:28