January 24, 2014 7:28 AM UTC

Bitcoin Price Update: Powerful Selloff Across Exchanges and Altcoins (Update: Gox Arbitrage)

Author: Gordon Hall

Strong selling pressure has gripped Bitcoin and the majority of altcoins for the last four hours. At the time of writing (6:00 GMT), Bitcoin price has fallen 5.67% over the last 24 hours.
Peercoin has been particularly hard hit, down about 17% over 24 hours according to Coin Market Cap. Litecoin is off nearly 14%, having crossed below the psychologically important $20 level.

30 Minute Chart of Bitstamp’s Bitcoin Price. Heiken Ashi (averaged) candles, the SAR indicator and moving averages all show a powerful sell off occuring.

The key question is whether Bitcoin will hold at its major support level: 765 on Bitstamp, 4640 on Huobi and 860 on Gox (which is currently displaying a lot of strength relative to other exchanges).
Given the listless reaction by Bitcoin price to yesterday’s very positive TigerDirect news, this current price weakness is somewhat expected.
Bitstamp Bitcoin Price on a 4 Hour Chart. Selloff Occuring on Relatively Light Volume.

Although the market looks bad at the moment, I may soon risk an exploratory long with a tight stoploss, about 10 to 20 points below major support.
It remains to be seen whether the market is presenting an opportunity to buy in cheaply or is about to turn genuinely bearish. Often the best opportunities are to be found in such risky moments.
Daily Bitstamp Bitcoin Price. Note today’s Average True Range (light blue line) uptick as price volatility returns.

The daily chart above shows we’re currently on our 5th red candle / down day; a statistically rare occurence. In the absence of major negative news or an increase in selling volume, it seems likely we’ll experience the relief of at least a single green candle tomorrow.

An unconfirmed rumour doing the rounds among traders is that the CEO of Huobi has gone missing. This seems like a pretty wild tale to me; probably an example of how people seek “stories” to justify big market moves. Unless we get confirmation from a credible source, it’s best to disregard this rumour as pure bearsh*t.

Update: lag on Gox may be responsible for its strength relative to other exchanges. The arbitrage, or price difference, between Gox and Bitstamp is at an all time high (~$140). The arbitrage between Gox and BTC-e (~$147) is the highest since the 4th of December 2013. If you’re experiencing lag withdrawing your Bitcoin from Gox, let us know about it in the comments section.

Daily chart showing Gox price minus Bitstamp (blue) and BTC-e (green) prices.

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