Bitcoin price has been ticking sideways in a narrow range for days. The more time passes the more uncertain the…
Bitcoin price has been ticking sideways in a narrow range for days. The more time passes the more uncertain the next move becomes. These are market conditions that should not be traded, and for those that must, namely CoinCompetition entrants, its no mean feat.
Time of analysis: 16h57 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The advancing wave in the center of the chart displays many of the characteristics of an Elliott Wave impulse. Yesterday’s low seems to have been a wave 4 which will be confirmed if this morning’s advancing wave pushes to a new high. If the latter wave is indeed a wave 5 then the advance could accelerate.
The alternate scenario is that today’s advancing wave is a B-wave that may or may not make a regional high before turning down with some vigor.
Here in the 1-hour chart, RSI and MACD are both in neutral territory and price is midway between two moving averages - the 200MA (red) and 800MA (purple). This does not mean that price must continue sideways – advance or decline can ensue from this state and the two MAs both present likely targets.
In order to achieve superior results, an investor must be able – with some regularity – to find asymmetries: instances when the upside potential exceeds the downside risk. That’s what successful investing is all about. - Howard Marks
Up a bit, down again, up... oh no, down some more. It's been a heartbreaking $4 range since Monday afternoon. Some traders respond to corrective price action by estimating the upside and downside range and then trading long from the bottom and shorting at the top. Others view the corrective zigzagging as a signal that price will soon break out of the range into a trend. Their strategy is to determine the likely direction that price may break to and to then position in anticipation of the move.
Neolystic1 appears to be applying the range trading strategy, while most of the traders in the leaderboard have positioned for a directional breakout and now await the move. Those positioned long are currently in the rankings, while those that are short fell out after today's small advancing move.
These are some of the lowest profit scores we've seen at this stage of the competition and the fact attests to the difficulty of keeping head above water in choppy price waves - and just how easy it is to go under if price moves against you even a few pips when competing.
Bitcoin price is zigzagging in sideways trade accompanied by neutral technical conditions. The magenta line in the chart above represents a support and resistance level that is currently holding back advance. If price can breach it then the 800MA and Fibonacci trendline are likely targets near $234 (Bitfinex). If the level rejects price then the 200MA near $226 would be a likely target. These are the probabilities but as for which one will transpire - in the current market - its just not clear.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume
What do readers think? Please comment below.
Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN.
The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Last modified (UTC): July 12, 2015 7:19 PM