Bitcoin price keeps simmering below $600. Perhaps ominously so. Direction is uncertain and the advice to traders remains the same: rather than anticipate the move, let the market show the way.
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The uptrend has steadily lost momentum and trajectory since the beginning of June.
From a bearish perspective the price action can be interpreted as a rounded top. The outlook would be for price to perhaps attempt $600 again, and then sell-off in a bout of profit taking. Although such a sell-off could draw price back below $500, a strong bounce from the low can be expected, since the outlook for Bitcoin remains overwhelmingly positive and the market-wide expectation of a reward-halving rally reverberates around forums and the media.
Continuing advance without a sell-off from current levels – the super bullish outlook – has some precedents in the chart. Several instances of rounded price patterns (that did not tip over into strong decline) are evident in the chart and circled in magenta. At the time of writing, the price pattern made during the past few days could be interpreted as such a rounded pattern that will subsequently launch into continuing advance.
However, betting money that the bullish case will unfold is not the smart course of action. Intra-day trading requires that we only take the highest probability opportunities, and the current state of the price chart is not, objectively, an opportunity that shouts “trade me!”.
Price may be keeling over into decline, or it may be setting up the next wave of advance. Once we see a surge above $600, confirmed by bullish indicators we have reason to trade long. Dropping below that red 200MA at $566 should see the market target a round figure $550, that is also the level of a long-term supporting Fib line, as outlined yesterday. Below $550 the $500 psych level comes into focus.
The bitcoin price chart seems to be keeling over, but strong buying continues, regardless. As with all markets and charts, cycles of expansion and contraction are intrinsic. Even in large expansion cycles, such as bitcoin price is presumably unfolding, both advance and retracement is natural and to be expected. It can be observed in many charts how, when the market bull-headedly denies price its proportional contractions, it often leads to violent sell-offs and crashes.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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