Bitcoin Price Still Above Support

Journalist:
April 1, 2016

Bitcoin price continues hovering around $415 and 2690 CNY. The chart’s technical conditions are primed for a break into either rally or decline.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC

Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:

The 1hr chart shows how, prior to the last advancing wave, price had traded above the 1-hour 200-period moving average (200MA, red). Currently, price is below this MA. The 1hr 200MA continues drawing horizontally.

The Stochastics (top) were descending from their upper maximum but have bounced (without price making a new low) and the stochastics look to be heading up again. Simultaneously, MACD trajectory looked to be pulling momentum below zero, but it had also bounced off its zero line. In the 15-minute chart (not shown) MACD compression implies that a break-out is building pressure.

The 15min chart indicates intra-day price waves. There is not yet any compression evident in the 1hr chart, so the smaller timeframe, 15min chart, may indicate a short-term decline to $400, or it may continue compressing until the larger timeframes confirm a larger trend break-out.

In the absence of active decline, trade options are as follows:

1) If price remains below the 1hr 200MA (red), and declines along with MACD falling below its zero-line then the immediate support price will encounter is a horizontal layer around $406. If the market can get below that then the critical $400 becomes a target, followed by $370 and then $320.

2) If price climbs back above the 1hr 200MA, then the bears have failed to capitulate and ongoing consolidation is the game. The converging grey trendlines above and below price will continue to constrain the market’s range until an ecosystem event catalyzes a breakout.

Summary

Bitcoin price bounces back towards its 1hr 200MA. The market has been keeping close to this security blanket since early March when the 1hr 200MA’s path began overlapping that of the 4hr 200MA. Yet, the market’s favorite security blanket in times of uncertainty – the 1-day 200MA at $370 (Bitstamp) – has not been touched since the exuberant rally of October last year. If fundamental uncertainty vanishes, the market won’t need any fall-backs to reach $700 or $1000. But if the threat of a hardfork remains, we will certainly see $370 on the way down.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin-price chart.

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Disclaimer

The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

Last modified (UTC): April 1, 2016 17:41

Venzen Khaosan @venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.