Bitcoin price is trading into a narrowing range and the market will soon be forced to choose a direction. Upside options are limited while the long-term indicators return to neutral, and if the outcome is decline, it will hopefully be contained above $500.
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
1-Hour MACD (panel above price) is consolidating to zero with its Bollinger Bands contracting, indicating the low volatility quiet that usually precedes a directional price move.
Price has held below the 1-hour candle chart’s 200MA (red) since coming down from the rally top. During the past day the market has tested the 200MA on two occasions while also finding support around $634 – a support and resistance level that was established on the way up during early June.
If the market can trade price above $660 (Bitstamp) then price will have chart headroom to target $680 – another important support and resistance level dating back to 2013 and 2014. Notice how a well-formed inverted head-and-shoulders pattern (annotated in blue) had failed, last week, at $680.
Below $634 is not an easier path for price, either, with several unsuccessful declines being rejected during the past week. If price does sell-off into this chart region, then Fibonacci extension targets exist – not surprisingly – at the previous low near $560 and at the $500 psych level.
Barring a bullish resurgence, the stochastics (top right) imply that the bias, at the 1-hour timeframe, is bearish.
Bitcoin price remains below the 1-day chart’s 20MA, and speculators should consider keeping funds allocation at 40:60 BTC vs fiat until we see a confirmation of a return to uptrend. The 1-day MA is currently approaching $674 (Bitstamp) and reinforces the upside resistance at $680 discussed above. In case of continuing decline sellers will encounter strong resistance at $560 – the recent corrective low. Let’s hope this is the bottom of a consolidation area prior to advance.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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