In an important moment for global markets, and the bitcoin price chart, the Federal Open Market Committee steered clear of committing to a date for their first interest rate hike since the Fed adopted ZIRP several years ago. The Fed’s cautious stance calmed market nerves and Bitcoin price slumped in response.
Time of analysis: 07h31 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The analysis outlook that price would return to the support floor near $287 still holds and there is some concern that the move may pull price back into decline.
The market has failed to push above $300 and the structure of the wave, to date, reminds of the failed attempt on $300 back in March. The failure had seen the market fall into a long period of decline.
A similar decline, in the current chart position, is unlikely because of the bullish alignment of moving averages at the larger timeframes. It is possible, however, that price does unfold a declining wave as the wave count in the chart implies.
If the present wave is indeed wave B, then a wave C to the downside will pull price lower. The green 20MA is dangerously close to the 200MA (red) and a crossover will be a bearish sign.
If the market can keep price above the support floor at $287 and then does advance above $300 then this outlook will change. Given global market conditions, this scenario is unlikely. We had suspected that the FOMC announcement would involve more can kicking, and the implication of rates increases being delayed is that institutional investors in Bitcoin will have to go along with the status quo – until the next market worry or shock prompts a shift back to safe havens.
Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market… I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market it is not well to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing. – Jesse Livermore
Bitcoin price is now back in a state of uncertainty. The past week’s advancing wave failed to reach $300 and price has now returned to a support floor near $287 (Bitfinex). The 1-day 20-period moving average has edged higher and is now only a few dollars below the area of price action. If the market confirms that it lacks enthusiasm for $300, a temporary decline may be on the cards.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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Last modified (UTC): July 30, 2015 11:48