Bitcoin Price Shows Market Caution

February 25, 2016

Bitcoin price has lost direction. Ordinarily, this kind of price action can be described as merely corrective, but the chart shows several months of lower lows and, now again, a lower high.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC

Bitstamp 4-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of, earlier today:

Price action seems conflicted, as the bulls managed a general push higher over the past few days, but long candle wicks to the downside betray the presence of the bears.

The indicators give no clear signal of the next likely price move, as both RSI (second from top) and MACD (immediately above price) hold to the middle of their ranges.

A bullish sign would be for the market to trade price above the 4hr 20-period moving average (green), which will lift MACD above its zero-line. In this case RSI will encounter reverse divergence at its 60% level, but that obstacle can be negotiated without much trouble.

To the downside the $400 level remains untested. The 4hr 200MA (red) is slowly advancing just below $400, but the market appears to have had little concern for this moving average since early January. The 1-day 20MA is also advancing near $400, and while some exchange charts have tagged this MA, it remains untouched in the BTCe, Bitfinex and Bitstamp charts. Possibly, this is a reflection of strong bullish sentiment amongst participants at these exchanges, but if the bulls were truly committed, they would have managed a higher high since early November. Instead we saw a third consecutive lower high after three months of trying.

Given the persistent contention and security threat being promoted by the Big Blocks cult, failure to make the short journey above $470 soon, may see the negative mood capitulate in the price chart.


Bitcoin price is directionless. Speculative bets in the bitcoin market are not being clearly signaled. In the long-term, bitcoin price can easily exceed the highs of 2013 but in the short-term, a treacherous few months lay ahead.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin-price chart.

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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

Venzen Khaosan @venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.