Bitcoin price has been bouncing along the $330 and 2100 CNY level for days. The benefits of bitcoin advance far outweigh those of decline, but a cynical sell-off seems to be opting for the worse of two options.
Time of analysis: 15h49 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The OKCoin CNY exchange is visibly leading the decline and its 15-minute chart, above, shows price forming the characteristic cascading arcs, prior to a move lower.
MACD was consolidating to its zero-line with its Bollinger bands constricting – the typical calm before the volatility storm. Both RSI and the stochastics were declining well before the sell-off took hold and were oscillating uncertainly near the middle of their ranges in a narrowing range.
The stochastics failed to reach their upper extreme on two notable occasions – usually a sign that the bears are in control.
The question remains: will this wave decline to the upper target nearer 1950 CNY or to the previous decline low nearer 1860 CNY ($300 Bitstamp)? Truth is, price could continue much lower into December and the new year, but for now it remains a reasonable expectation that the bulls will try to assert themselves at $300, at least.
To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate. – Jesse Livermore
If the previous resistance at $300 can offer support in the coming weeks, then we have the prospect of continuing advance in 2016. Yet, as markets tend to do, there now seems to be a morbid compulsion to test (and make sure) that a bitcoin is really worth $300. Let’s hope the largest speculators think so.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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