Bitcoin price declines reluctantly and has not achieved a new high since Sunday. Successive lows are printing in the chart and the bulls seem to be using each as an enthusiastic buying opportunity, making for a jagged decline.
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Since Sunday’s high price has been making lower highs and lower lows, but the decline is proceeding with difficulty. At the smaller timeframes price can be seen to swiftly retrace each wave to a new low by almost 90% of its length.
Either the decline is in its early stages and the bulls are still reluctant to concede, or this downward move is corrective and will be followed by another attempt on the resistance ceiling.
It is still too early to tell which option is more likely. For now the price action resembles a rounded wave top that could accelerate to the downside.
A likely long-term target of a larger decline would be $400 (Bitstamp) and 2700 CNY. However, the current declining wave doesn’t look like it can cover the distance in a straight line – it is not setting up a typical sell-off pattern, so there may be a lot of jagged wave action before we see downside distance being hauled. The support level crossing through the chart should see an initial price reaction, as will the 4-hour 200-period moving average (near $400), eventually.
The outlook for decline remains. Eventual targets are at $400 (Bitstamp) and 2700 CNY. The analysis discussion above is for the bearish outcome. Bear in mind that the strong bullish activity may take price higher before we see stronger decline. As discussed over the weekend, we will only consider a bullish outlook if price pushes above the most recent high.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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