Since my last update, the Bitcoin price fell down the stairs, rolling then bouncing at the 820 and 800 levels I mentioned. Price then sunk all the way to the 765 danger level I sign-posted as bear territory. Bears left brief clawmarks at that level before bulls emerged to chase price back up.
Looks like we’re now back to the middle of the channel, and sideways remains the direction. The question is whether this latest move will spark a trend that carries us higher for another bash at 850.
As you can see from the notes on the hourly, I’ve been doing a little scalping. Mostly I do this to keep sharp; it’s not my preferred trading style at all. I’m hoping we break out this range soon. The chart below shows this hasn’t happened yet. Before putting on any big trades, I’m waiting patiently for a setup on this timeframe.
As you can see, price is coming out that triangle pattern to the upside. People have been talking a lot about this triangle, so we’ll see if that proves significant to the upside.
As for recommendations, I’m not making any today. I’m pretty sick this weekend so not doing any serious trades until I’m better.
This is a rule that saves money: never trade when sick, drunk, crazy over a woman, etc.
Update: on the daily chart, I forgot to mention the light and dark blue ATR indicators over the volume bars. ATR stands for Average True Range, the high to low distance Bitcoin price moves in a day. The light blue line is a 1 period average – in other words, no average at all, just that day’s price range. The dark blue line is a 2 week average.
If you look at the last breakout, the points where I bought my 2ndand 3rd lots, you’ll see price volatility increased above the fortnightly average, to signal strong moves were happening. This is the sort of signal I’d like to see before getting onboard with any future trends, as a weak MACD cross would be an unreliable signal within this sideways channel.
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Last modified: January 19, 2014 22:21 UTC