Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
Bitstamp Daily Chart
Yesterday’s daily chart is augmented here with an additional Fib fan drawn from the June 2014 high. Fib fan lines often exert their influence for as long as price action remains in their path. The November high touched the .382 fan line before falling away, and it may be that we see another touch of the June .618 fan line where it meets the red rising support (bottom-right of chart).
Also on this chart are the 20-period and 200-period averages that are our bellwethers for trend. Price advances over the long-term once it establishes above the 200-period moving average. As can be seen in the left half of the chart, price respects the 20-period moving average during the downtrend. The same phenomenon can be seen during Bitcoin price rallies to date. We’ll revisit this chart feature during the first week of the New Year.
Bitstamp 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart includes the indicators from the daily chart and shows that price is in the middle-of-nowhere during an established downtrend. Although RSI implies an imminent reversal – of short-term trend, at least – the only visible support and resistance are the Fib fan lines in the immediate path of price action, as well as, the rising long-term support line (red) at the lower right.
A .618 Fib extension tool drawn off the first wave down from the November high shows a possible target at $272 (Bitstamp).
It would be encouraging to see price reverse (or consolidate) at current levels above $300. However, we have no evidence that this is about to occur – it may still – but we’ll have to wait for the signs.
Additional downside cannot be ruled out and visible support, discussed above, lies below $300.
The initial signs of reversal into advance will be that price moves above both the 4-hour 20-period moving average and the .5 Fib fan line that has been capping the downtrend since November.
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Last modified: July 12, 2015 12:12 UTC