Bitcoin Price has dropped to a new decline low in a fierce sell-off across exchanges. During the overlap of the late US and early Asian trading session price began falling from levels in the high $260s (1,670 CNY) to the low $250s (1,508 CNY) within an hour. At the time of writing the average USD price is $230 and BTC-China is at 1,420 CNY.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 12h00 UTC
BitFinex 4-Hourly Chart
By 12h00 UTC, the BitFinex chart had made its way to the bottom the Fib channel and dropped below it to $226 – just short of the target of $220 posted in yesterday’s analysis. The decline is ferocious and has the hallmarks of being in its terminal stages as panicked Bitcoin holders sell-off with abandon. The price gap in the declining wave is only visible in the 4-hour chart (by Tradingview), but it has often happened in the past that these anomalous gaps get filled to precision by subsequent corrective trade.
As the US trading day begins, we could expect additional waves of decline as Bitcoin holders wake up to long red candles on their charts. The “psych” level of $200 remains unchallenged, and it’s possible that price may spike below it to as low as $160 in some exchanges. The comparable psych level in the BTC-China chart is 1,200 CNY although 1,000 CNY seems more appropriate. At this stage of the decline there is no point in stoically trying to call the bottom – we can only stay out and observe as the volatility ramps up, and large buy orders start getting triggered at discount prices.
Bitstamp Dailly Chart
The daily Bitstamp chart is cluttered at this level of zoom but shows that price found support at a Fib fan line as it struck a low near $216. This level also corresponds to a 4.618 Fib extension of the first wave of the current subwave down.
To the left of price action a 2.618 Fib extension level of the first wave down from the November high shows the possibility of a $160 low in this chart.
The market is reeling as Bitcoin price tumbles lower. Several waves of decline have followed in close succession all day, and it seems a few more are due.
We wait to see what happens at $200 (and 1,200 CNY) and what buying action awaits price at that critical level.
The ramp up in volatility makes this an unsuitable time to open trades – especially if you’re trading with leverage. As the bottom approaches, the price swings could become tumultuous. Opportunistic non-leveraged buy orders that cascade to the lower prices is the way to play it here.
Leveraged traders should wait for the volatility to subside before opening positions.
Despite the strength of the decline there is a fair amount of buying over at BitFinex:
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.