Bitcoin Price has been advancing persistently and hit $260 / 1620 CNY during today’s Asia-Pacific trading session. xbt.social analysis considers what lies ahead.
Time of analysis: 04h59 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The advance is approaching target at $261 and 1621 CNY.
Price has pushed relentlessly through resistance and into compounding divergence to the upside. The advance is now approaching the 1-day 100MA’s 10% envelope at $261 and 1621 CNY and we should see a reaction at this level.
The nature of the reaction will determine the outlook going forward. Price is advancing relentlessly, although with strain, and this energy is not evident in any other market charts. Following the weekend’s news out of Greece, the initial market reactions have retraced most of their early-Monday moves. Yet, Bitcoin continues rallying despite chart technicals or correlations elsewhere in the chart. This bullish fervor is good to see. Although we must recognize that there is an element of irrationality in the market’s abandon of the technicals it had so meticulously followed for the past 6 months.
Should the exuberance persist and price push above the critical $261 / 1621 CNY level then the rally could continue, unobstructed to $280 and 1715 CNY.
If price falls away from the target ($261), then we observe its depth of decline: the 200MA at each timeframe (daily, 4-hourly, 1-hourly) should provide support. If the 200MAs start failing we can assume that we’re in for a deeper correction or even decline.
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected. – George Soros
The $260 and 1620 CNY level is crucial. If Bitcoin price can hold it, and advance above it, this rally should have some distance to go yet. Dropping below and giving up the level may see additional attempts to advance above it, but falling away will require us to adjust our outlook.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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Last modified: July 12, 2015 10:36 UTC