The Bitcoin price started advancing on 28 June after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced a referendum following a deadlock in Greece's negotiations with creditors. The Day of Greckoning has arrived and, once again, trade is pushing higher. Will a Greek "No" vote spark a rally?
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 14h52 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price is pushing up against a long-term dynamic envelope, from the 1-day chart, and drawn in Greek Chrysanthemum pink in the chart above. An earlier attempt to advance above the level ($262 / 1624 CNY) was rejected but trade is approaching it again, at the time of writing.
The sense is that the market is anticipating a "No" vote from Greece and wants to rally on this outcome (a "No" vote).
An expected outcome of the Greek referendum is difficult to predict, especially, since it is not publicly verifiable block chain vote it may very well be rigged. The Euro zone and most stakeholders (notably Greece's creditors) have expressed a desire to see a "Yes" vote. Markets, in general, would also want to see a "Yes" vote since this outcome presents the least risk.
A minority of Greeks, including the far-right, are vocal about Greek independence and a "No" vote. For different reasons, the Syriza party also want a "No" vote and have been campaigning for such.
Regarding the majority of Greeks, who are ordinary working people, although their social mood is pitted against the banks and years of austerity, their desire for a semblance of stability and the security of "normal" working and living may prompt them to vote for "the devil they know" with a "Yes". The alternative is a journey into the unknown and potential chaos.
To the upside the established target is at $280 / 1700 CNY. To the downside the 1-day chart's 200MA should provide initial support at $250 / 1550 CNY, below which $235 and $222 are possible as extremes.
BREAKING: Greek interior ministry projection says 'no' camp will get more than 61 percent of vote.
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 5, 2015
Greeks should be united in their fight for the rule of law and against the cleptocracy, and not divided over a referendum on an absurd question. - George Kintis of Alcimos
The Bitcoin chart is gearing up for a move higher on a "No" outcome in the Greek referendum. Once price pushes (and maintains position) above $262 / 1624 CNY, a primary upside target lies at $280 and 1700 CNY. A "Yes" from Greece may very well draw price lower toward $250 and 1550 CNY as fear and uncertainty subside - for now.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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