Bitcoin price pushed through an important trendline intersection yesterday but launchpad staff had failed to fuel the tanks. A pop and fizzle is all we got. Traders can sheath their arrows until the next chart signal.
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The halving event had created a sense of optimism that price would rally, and when price pushed above a upside constraining trendline, yesterday, it seemed a new wave to the previous high would erupt. However, all the market could manage was a fake-out to the upside.
The chart technicals were bullish yesterday, but have now lost strength and the outlook, therefore, is for ongoing consolidation.
RSI had exceeded a previous high (magenta arrow) while price only made a lower high (reverse divergence) and MACD had turned down from its upper Bollinger Band as price fell away from a lower high. Given these indications, additional upside looked unlikely and price is still correcting downwards at the time of writing.
The caution, mentioned during the past two weeks, that traders should wait for price to convincingly break – and establish – above $680 (Bitstamp) remains a prudent choice.
The level that is acting as a consolidation pivot still seems to be centered around $640-$650 and this should be the destination of the present decline. However, to get there price will breach its 1hr 200MA which will shift the chart technicals toward a bearish outlook and the decline may overshoot to the low $600s before snapping back to the consolidation mean.
Bitcoin price formed the initial stalk of an advancing wave, yesterday, but its trajectory quickly fizzled as cautious bulls took profit while others (presumably) sat out, waiting for price to advance above $680 resistance. The market has fallen back into the consolidation zone and, with no strong technical bias in the chart, a large price move is delayed until further notice.
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