Bitcoin price continues scratching out a non-committal path around $420 and 2800 CNY. Another attempt at advance is not out of the question, but the prospect of a labored decline looms.
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The outlook for bitcoin price is bearish. In the coming days we will cover the three pillars of analysis with respect to the bitcoin chart: technical, sentimental and fundamental. Today’s article considers the chart technicals.
The 4-hour chart shows a repeating pattern of price action since mid December: the market cautiously approaches a down-sloping ceiling and then sells off rapidly. The last three sell-offs from this ceiling made a series of lower lows. The most recent attempt to break above the ceiling resulted in two sell-offs during the past week.
The technical outlook is therefore made simple by the presence of the resistance ceiling. If the market can successfully trade price above it, we can expect continuing advance. As long as price remains below it, we can expect another series of lower lows.
A corrective advance toward the prior highs (if signaled) will be our first prospective trade. Failure to breach the resistance ceiling should result in a frustrated sell-off to the 4hr 200MA – potentially a lucrative short trade.
The 4hr 200MA is currently near $400 in the USD exchanges. Price has not yet touched this significant MA after falling away from the failed attempt to break above the resistance ceiling. We see price grappling with a rapidly descending 20MA (green) in the 4hr chart. A reasonable expectation is that the 4hr 200MA be the next significant target of decline.
Bitcoin price is not gaining altitude. If the market cannot get above the resistance ceiling (and it has failed to do so after almost three months of trying) then the most likely path will be down. Not in a straight line, but in a series of steps as has been the pattern. Weekend trade may remain subdued. We observe whether the next interim move targets established resistance above, or whether the $400 exerts its gravity.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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