Bitcoin price surged higher earlier today and then stopped short of printing a new high. At the time of writing, the small advance is retracing and the question is whether it will continue higher, or fall back into sideways consolidation.
Time of analysis: 14h15 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
xbt.social held back on opening a buy trade today, based on the lack of larger timeframe indications in support of a continuing push higher.
The initial wave up resembles a first wave of advance and, even now (see chart above), it is retracing in a similar manner to the first wave of advance we saw earlier in the week.
For all intents and purposes the chart appears bullish, but there is some residual caution that is holding price at the current level. As we saw during the consolidation of the past 3 weeks, price sometimes surged but then pulled back to support. This same trading pattern may unfold at the present level, and here are the deciders:
The bullish scenario should see price hold above its 1-hour 20MA and also above the Fib line from which today’s advance launched. A Fib extension tool shows the upside target to fall at 2455 CNY and $420. If price can hold support and then push to a new high the prospect of continuing advance is favored.
Trading across the supporting Fib line and re-establishing contact with the dashed grey trendline just below price will pull price back below its 1-hour 20MA and shift the bias to ongoing sideways consolidation. In the latter case, price may then retest the red Fib line running across the chart. A break below that will be bearish and open up $340 to the downside.
Price is rearing to go but the pace of trading is slow and cautious. We might see renewed advance, as outlined above, or ongoing consolidation as has been the default market mode during the past 3 weeks. Targets to the upside include $420 and 2455 CNY, but traders should observe the conditions described above to ensure they don’t walk into a hopeful bull trap.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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