Bitcoin price rebounds to the upside, but the block reward halving waiting game continues (amid growing suspense).
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The strong reaction from the low near $600 (Bitstamp) does not yet resemble an advancing wave, yet, even if it did there is no xbt.social buy signal in the 1hr chart and we remain out of the market until we see a clear signal in either direction. For now, price advance has run into resistance at the 200MA (red) in the 4hr chart.
The sense is that the market is eager for advance. There are large buy orders filling in under price and the expectation of a block reward halving rally has become an assumption. Traders can remain cautiously optimistic but have to acknowledge that we have seen moderately strong selling during the past several days.
Until we get a signal to trade, here are a few scenarios that seem likely:
1) Immediate advance – price finds support anytime between now and the moment of announcement of the block reward halving and launches into a strong surging rally. Although it may not look like it, price may already have made its final low yesterday.
2) Consolidation and gradual advance – as per the previous halving in 2012 price draws sideways into the halving event, continues consolidating for a few days (or weeks) and then begins a gradual but persistent advance above the June high.
3) Decline, bounce, rally – it is possible that price resumes decline, perhaps finds support at $560 (or lower) and bounces into a rallying wave at or after the halving event.
The chart above shows the remaining downside target at $560 (Bitstamp) at the red arrow. The overhead resistance layer to $680 is annotated in blue. Once price establishes above this level, then the previous high (green arrow) should be the first stop along the rallying path.
A significant moment for the Bitcoin ecosystem is only days (or hours) away. Traders and speculators should expect the unexpected and consider any risk to their trading account inherent in the scenarios described above.
A lot of sellers up there…
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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