The bitcoin price chart is becoming ambiguous as it approaches its first large move for the new year. Traders have been actively accumulating bitcoin, yet, regardless a potential sell signal is developing at the larger 4-hour timeframe.
Time of analysis: 14h30 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Today’s 15min chart (not shown) had seen price fall below its 200-period moving average (200MA). If the 20MA were to also cross below the 200MA we’d have a potential sell signal in the 15min chart.
The 4hr chart (above) is a timeframe we have not looked at for over a week and it has a few interesting features:
1) the 4hr 200MA has been supporting price since the late-December low.
2) the 20MA and 200MA are in close proximity.
3) If price pulls below the 200MA then the 4hr 20MA will soon follow and cross below the 200MA – a potent sell signal at this timeframe.
That price will enter decline seems improbable given the amount of buying that we’ve seen during the past week. The size of individual buy orders had been resembling accumulation prior to advance.
Advance may still be likely, and it may be that the market simply bounces price off the 4hr 200MA and that the 20MA never crosses below it. However, just in case the bottoms falls out of this market, a sell TR will be prepared in the event that the price enters decline under a 4hr MA sell signal.
It would be a disappointment to see price fall back into decline at the beginning of the year. Although there is no current 4hr chart sell signal, a 20MA and 200MA cross-over at this timeframe has rarely failed to see the market capitulate. Should a sell signal occur then the initial target should be the previous low at $410 and 2550 CNY.
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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