Bitcoin price looks like it may make a drop to new lows, but then again, gold is pushing higher; actually the US dollar is strengthening – oh, wait the yuan is being devalued… The pushes and pulls on prices are extreme. Like Cargo Cult members expecting the best or the worst, bitcoin traders are left unsure in a vacillating market.
Time of analysis: 16h40 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price direction is ambiguous. A futures chart is presented.
It shows what the panicked yuan charts are over-representing and the cynical USD chart are under-estimating.
The BTC-China advance has been resisted by the 1-hour 200MA like it was on a previous occasion. The MA alignments are currently similar to the previous instance of reversal and we would expect a gradual decline culminating in a sell signal. The PBoC – despite saying “one time only” – again devalued the yuan by a few points this morning – nothing like the large change of Tueday – and perhaps that is why the CNY exchanges are not reacting to the upside like they did earlier in the week.
The Bitstamp chart formed a regular a-b-c correction which implies return to decline. However, it has not reached the 200MA – but then Bitstamp has been an underachiever to both the upside and downside since the beginning of the year.
If we see decline here we take a short trade once a clear sell signal. Similarly, if advance were to make a new high above the 1-hour chart’s 200MA that would be a signal for us to trade long.
Remember the clever speculator is always patient and has a reserve of cash. – Jesse Livermore
As is the motto in these conditions, the advice is: when in doubt just stay out. The one minute price looks to be plunging to terrible new lows and then the Chinese nation stages a exuberant rally to a lower high – oh no! – turn back down. The bitcoin chart is a mess and market participants have no clear agenda. There is nothing to bet on, here, until we have confirmation of direction.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume earlier today tells the story:
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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