The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) spoiled the upside gains we had made yesterday in the Bitcoin market. The regulator delayed its decision on the Bitcoin ETF proposed by the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust. The Bitcoin price fell 11% soon after the news broke into the wire.
To ease our pain, we joked and called it a “Wait-a-SEC” moment.
Our analysis from yesterday had defined our upside targets only if the BTC/USD pair could attempt a bullish breakout. That didn’t happen. Instead, the panic sell confirmed that we should stay out of the market for a while. We first broke 7000-fiat, our psychological support, and then decided to put a short towards 6815-fiat, our interim support level. We did manage to squeeze out a decent profit; but overall, our long-term holdings took a shocker as the BTC/USD kept slipping. A falling knife, indeed.
So, where does it bring us? Let’s begin by discussing the analysis first.
The falling knife should exhibit a potential trend reversal before anything more can be said. We are now focusing on the ascending channel support depicted in purple that has stopped the downside momentum for a while. The BTC/USD anyway has fallen below its key moving average supports, including 50, 100 and 200H MA. The 100H MA, however, is still above the 200H one, giving us hopes of a potential bullish scenario.
The RSI and Stochastic indicators are now inside their respective oversold areas, indicating a potential bullish correction phase in near-term.
Overall, the BTC/USD market is high on bears.
So the latest downtrend brings us to a new range, which means we should reevaluate our intraday positions without concerning with the trend the BTC/USD would follow. The new range we are watching today is defined by 6815-fiat as our new interim resistance and 6480-fiat as our new interim support. We will, meanwhile, will be looking at the descending channel as a potential breakout indicator.
To begin with, we are first following a wait-and-watch approach to validate an extended consolidation phase post the bear flag formation. We would anyway be waiting for the BTC/USD to break below the interim support at 6480-fiat, before putting in any position. Should it happen, we would enter a short position towards 6280-fiat, our primary downside target while placing out stop loss a four-pips above our entry point to define our risk.
A further break, and we’ll enter a similar position towards 6086-fiat.
Looking the other way around, our breakout positions will only be confirmed when BTC/USD breaks above the channel resistance. Should it happen, our strategy will be intrarange only. With that said, we’ll enter a long position towards 6815-fiat while putting our stop loss at two-pips below the entry point.
For long holders, Wait-a-SEC, please.
Featured image from Shutterstock. Charts from TradingView.
Last modified: May 20, 2020 6:08 PM UTC