Bitcoin price was eagerly sold to a low just above $300 before advancing away from it in equally enthusiastic trade. Apparently stuck in a rut above the $300 security blanket level, the market may not move significantly until the Fed fires the lift-off starter-gun in December.
Time of analysis: 14h09 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price corrected downwards, early today, to $310 (Bitstamp) and 2015 CNY before retracing most of the move for the rest of the day.
The move had made no new price low and there are two likely expectations:
1) The market is trying to test $300 but there is strong buying interest even above this level. Once all those who intended to buy have done so, the next sell-off should pull price to $300.
2) The market is consolidating in a trading range between $300 and $340. Today’s downward correction has spent most of the bearish energy and the bulls will now continue buying to the upper blue trendline.
If price is bought to above the blue trendline, then buying may accelerate. Failure to get above the trendline may see the consolidative pattern continue – with another sell-off toward $300 and then a subsequent return to the mid $350s.
Nothing is so exhausting as indecision, and nothing is so futile. – Bertrand Russell
There is no clear signal in the chart of what the market intends. This is, after all, consolidation – when the market itself is not sure what it wants to do. Decline below $300 will be tedious and a miserable end to 2015 for bitcoin. Advance to $400 and $500 is preferable on every count, but a market lacking motivation often just trades sideways. The next Fed funds rate statement in early December should provide the needed catalyst.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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