Bitcoin price pushed to $392 (Bitstamp) and, today, attempted the high again but failed. Once again in tandem with gold, bitcoin price fell away from the high and now approaches support. Will it break or will it bounce?
Time of analysis: 14h30 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The 1hr momentum indicators are all declining, but this does not preclude another wave to a new high. If price does push higher, then the new high should be accompanied by indicator divergence in the 1hr chart.
RSI (third from top) has reverse diverged (blue arrow) in relation to the high of January 21 while MACD (top) is reverse diverged to the lower high of January 24. This reverse divergence should force price lower (and there is a downward correction underway at the time of writing). However, if price finds support at the Fib line immediately below it, then the bulls may draw courage and attempt a new wave to the upside.
Targeting, as per yesterday’s chart, implied a price high of $390 for this wave, and we got ~$392 in most USD exchange charts. Another Fib extension target (not shown) also shows $400 to be a potential target.
Watch the bitcoin chart in the coming hours to see whether or not price finds support and bounces higher. A surge into an advancing trend was expected – and all the indications were confirmatory – but the irregular base wave formation leaves such an outlook in doubt. The price pattern of the current push higher does not differ from previous corrective waves to the upside. Accordingly, if price is not currently in a wave of advance, then the push higher is merely a correction prior to a full retracement, at least, and a larger wave of decline at worst.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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