Bitcoin Price Slipping From $600, Downside Risk

Venzen Khaosan @venzen
September 25, 2016

Bitcoin price looks to be slipping from $600 and 4,000 CNY in some exchanges exchanges. Failure to hold this critical level opens the possibility of another corrective wave of decline.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 12h00 UTC Sunday

Bitstamp 4-Hour Candle Chart

From the analysis pages of, earlier today:

Price is grappling with support and resistance at $600 and 4,000 CNY across exchanges.

In the 4hr chart we see that price had recently used the 200MA (red) as support. Yet, RSI had advanced too far too soon and formed reverse divergence to an RSI peak from 2 weeks ago (magenta). Price is, hence, forced into correction. The pale magenta trendlines above and below price imply a consolidation range that should see the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow around price in the 4hr and 1day charts.

If the current correction were to pull below the 4hr 200MA (and $550 support), then a plunge to $550 is possible: this level corresponds to a 2.618 Fib extension target, as well as a 50% retracement level (scale right) of the entire advance since the early August low. Both of these Fibonacci levels are frequently targeted by the bitcoin price chart.


Bitcoin price must hold $600 in order to continue advance. The apparent reluctance to make upside progress above $600 may forewarn another downward correction. Will we see advance into the end of the year? The largest timeframes imply “yes”. From the 1day timeframe down it appears that it must happen either via a prior consolidation (several weeks around $600) or a drop-and-bounce to $550.

Bitstamp Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin-price chart.

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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from iStock/Dekart.

Venzen Khaosan @venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.