Bitcoin price is holding ground near $250 and 1550 CNY after a surge from $240 yesterday. Monday morning may see markets, especially the Euro-pair forex instruments react strongly to the surprise twist in the Greek elegy. We consider the paths of price in the coming days, with critical levels that will define the price action.
Time of analysis: 14h34 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Two wave counts try to make sense of where price action may be heading.
The black count is preferred and involves no change to our previous outlook of continuing decline in a final wave C. This wave C should target previously identified levels at $230, $222 and perhaps lower, although this prospect will be explored once we have confirmation of decline.
An alternate count is annotated in red and implies continuing advance to $280 and eventually $300. This count is not favored, but it cannot be ruled out as a potential path of price. The global economy is about to deal with a shock event, namely Greece turning the tables on the IMF and ECB on Friday after markets had closed. The possibility of a Greek referendum shunning the creditors’ terms and voluntarily defaulting will bring many worst case scenarios into focus, a topic that will be addressed in tomorrow’s CCN.LA Global Economic Outlook.
Euro-based bitcoin purchases via Localbitcoins.com had peaked to its highest level in 18 months last week, although some currency charts also show strong bitcoin sell volumes, for example, Russian Rouble-based sales last week, as shown in this r/Bitcoin post.
A flight to safety, from risky Euro-based bank accounts into bitcoins, may drive exchange volumes up and fuel a rally. A counterpoint to this scenario is that Greece has announced that it will not impose capital controls prior to the July 5 referendum, thereby exposing international banking interests to continued deposit withdrawals. The two forces may cancel one another’s effect on price, or one of the vectors may prove dominant in the coming days and weeks – either pushing price higher (flight to safety) or having no effect (Greek depositors have access to euros in their bank accounts).
As presented in an earlier analysis post, confirmation of advance will be that price 1) advances above the 1-day 200MA and an annual pivot at $255 (Bitstamp), and 2) advances above the 100MA’s 10% envelope ($261 – Bitstamp) that has contained price since late February this year.
The declining scenario has a pivot at $240, as has been discussed during the past week’s analysis updates.
An object at rest tends to stay at rest and an object in motion tends to stay in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force. – Isaac Newton
Coin Muncher remains in a trade position and holds the lead. s.a.imports is in second place and the KeylessGuy takes third place with 2 trades – well done – and swaps into bitcoin “cash”. Vertriti is in fourth place and Rahul has dropped from third to fifth.
In sixth place is previous contender Nixian who, despite technical difficulties, has climbed the ranks. Nixian brought to our attention his experience of trade rejections and missing funds. Traders who are experiencing technical difficulties – either with remaining logged-in to the Coinarch trading platform, or who may be having trade executions fumbled by the platform server – should capture errors with screenshots and email David Parker or myself with a brief description of the platform error and with screenshots attached.
Good luck to traders for the remaining hours of this week’s round of CoinCompetition.
Bitcoin price will be subject to emotive markets in the coming days and the possibility of a flight to safety may fuel additional advance. However, this outcome is not confirmed until we see price climb above $255 and then $261 in the Bitstamp chart. Decline, unlikely as it seems in the current context, will be heralded by price pulling below $240. Should the coming week witness a ramp in global market volatility we can expect some over-sized price moves.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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Last modified: June 30, 2015 09:01 UTC