Bitcoin price breached the 4-hour 200MA in most exchange charts today as buyers eagerly piled into advance. At the time of writing, the market has become quiet, and if a larger decline will grip the market, then the time is now.
Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price has reached the upside correction target mentioned in previous analysis.
A strong impulse wave higher has pushed above the 4hr 200MA (not shown) and is making an attempt at two overlapping resistance levels.
1) an established support & resistance layer (upper blue line)
2) the 1.618 Fib extension level of the initial wave of advance
The breach of the 4hr 200MA is ordinarily bullish and if the market can push above the overhead resistance the prospect would be very bullish. However, the indicators at 15min , 1hr and 4hr timeframes all show that the current wave is overbought.
In light of the past week’s analysis that the current push is merely advance in a correction, we should realistically expect price to resume decline if the resistance layer holds.
The depth of any subsequent decline will determine our outlook: a break below recent support (lower blue line) will be bearish, but holding above this level will indicate that a bottom is forming for the correction since December.
The decline target remains at the previous low near $365 and 2450 CNY. If the market trades yet another wave to the upside and fails to breach the resistance ceiling, then we will have an indication that trend will turn back down. Bear in mind that a final corrective wave (such as this) typically resembles advance right up to the moment of decline.
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Last modified (UTC): February 13, 2016 16:44