Bitcoin Price, Gold Hold Steady

October 7, 2014 16:29 UTC

Bitcoin Price advance has held above $300 and is currently trading around the levels discussed in yesterday’s analysis. To strengthen the case for advance price must now proceed to $360. The details of the 30,000 BTC sell order placed below market value have some interesting implications that are considered in today’s analysis.

Bitcoin Price Holding Steady

Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC
The following Bitstamp 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin price action around the $333 level that is currently the location of the 20-period moving average. The pre-condition for advance has not changed: price needs to get on top of the 20MA and target the 200MA just above $400.

Price action has been in slight decline for most of the day and a look at the 15-minute chart reveals an ambivalent picture.

Gearing For a Move Up?

Price is has met the 200MA on the 15-minute chart and may drop below. However, MACD and RSI both indicate reverse divergence to yesterday’s low near the 0.618 Fib retracement level. Should price decline below $320 then 0.618 may again be it’s target, yet, a move up will be forced by the reverse divergence. How far price will subsequently travel is unknown, but to above the 20MA seems achievable.

Updates will follow later in the day.

Bitstamp’s Bitcoin Whale Order

The limit order for 30,000 BTC placed in the Bitstamp exchange has generated lots of excitement and speculation. With price trading above $300 on Bitstamp, the large limit order was placed at $300. Traders could therefore buy Bitcoins at a discount to the exchange price. The 15-minute chart above shows how the market bought into that orders over several hours before clearing it. A backlog (or overflow) of orders then caused price to surge from $300 to $325 within minutes.

Some interesting theories as to the origin of the 30K BTC order abound and some Bitcoin users believe they’ve identified one of the wallets involved.

Regardless of the reasons why, the fact that this Bitcoin whale sale was executed in the manner that it was, is fortuitous. By placing this large order below market price, the seller guaranteed that price would be drawn upward.

Global Economy

Gold

Gold is holding steady above it’s low of $1,882.93 and is currently trading atop its 4-hour 20-period moving average (abbreviated chart on the right). As discussed yesterday, there is technical evidence in support of the view that Gold is embarking on a multi-month rally with a target in the vicinity of $1,340.

Japan

In a monetary policy statement released today, the Bank of Japan has maintained its record stimulus with the yen trading near six-year lows. The BoJ will increase the monetary base at an annual release of 60-70 trillion yen ($643bil).

Selected Economic Data

  • Japan Monetary Policy Statement
    • (see above)
  • Japan BoJ Press Conference
  • UK Manufacturing Production
    • expected: 0.2% (previous: 0.3%)
    • actual: 0.1

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    Disclaimer

    The writer is fully invested in Bitcoin via BTC-e and Bitfinex. Trade and Investment is risky but not as risky as some other things out there. Take care only to take action in the market when you are 100% sure of the outcome. CCN accepts no liability whatsoever for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

    Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
    Images from Shutterstock.

Last modified: July 12, 2015 10:55 UTC

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@venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.