Bitcoin price continues drawing sideways, along with global markets, in anticipation of today’s Fed rates announcement. Although markets do not expect the Fed to reintroduce the turmoil of earlier this year, there is a chance that the central bank cranks up rates and sends bitcoin and gold on their way higher.
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The holding pattern in the chart reflects the anticipation leading into the Federal Open Market Committee’s announcement at 18h00 UTC later today, Wednesday. Notice how the momentum indicators have consolidated to the center of their ranges.
Another rates hike, although not expected, would enforce sufficient market repositioning and uncertainty to send the safe havens, bitcoin and gold, back into rallies. Dovish tones, and caution, from the Fed could calm market fears sufficiently to ally volatility and uncertainty, thereby moving interest away from safety and back into risk. Both bitcoin and gold could continue slumping for the immediate future.
If the bitcoin chart’s holding pattern is indeed a B wave setting up for decline, it looks to be creeping closer toward the edge. Price is trading below a declining 20MA in the 1-day chart although the 4-hour chart, shown above, is ambiguous – in keeping with the market calendar moment.
If the Fed’s announcement includes a shock, the 4-hour chart does allow price to bias toward the upside: price is close to a capping trendline (grey), that when broken, could see price target any of the previous highs in the chart. Although we would ordinarily expect the stochastics (top panel) to first settle at their lower extreme before oscillating to the upside, there is a previous example (circled in magenta) of an uptrend proceeding without this requirement.
The bitcoin price chart remains technically bearish, but a significant global market announcement by the Fed, today, can swing price trend. A hawkish Fed announcement of further tightening via rates increases, should immediately express in the bitcoin price chart with price breaking above resistance. Alternatively, with the Fed talking more cautiously, bear in mind that consolidative price waves can continue for much longer than seems reasonable, and the blue channel in the chart shows a potential path that can take days to complete.
What do readers think? Please comment below.
Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN.LA. A Global Economic Outlook report is published every Monday.
The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.
Last modified: March 16, 2016 21:33 UTC