Bitcoin price hovers above $410 as the market comes face to face with its options. Buy today and risk betting on the reward-halving rally too soon, or sell now to buy into the post-Classic(TM) relief rally later.
Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
As anticipated in yesterday’s analysis post, magenta arrows at the top-right of the chart show that MACD has returned to its zero-line, and RSI has peaked above 60. The stochastics (top) will soon group at their maximum value.
The RSI peak had formed reverse divergence to a previous RSI peak and the high is not confirmed by price making a similar high above the corresponding price high. This reverse divergence should see price continue lower when the bulls get tired.
The initial target should be the $400 psychological level, but if price sells-off through it then the primary target of $370 comes into focus.
This is our planning for either a test of long-term support or a break below that support. If price bounces from the $400 level then traders should close all leveraged positions and buy-and-hold speculators return funds allocation to 50:50.
In the event that price fails to decline and simply continues higher, we wait for a buy signal back toward $430 or $440. This seems unlikely since the 4-hour chart 20MA is currently descending into a cross-over with the 4-hour 200MA.
Let’s wait for a sell signal and not make any assumptions.
Bitcoin price decline is hammering lower. Without as high a degree of decentralization as possible, and with reduced mining security, Bitcoin loses all meaning. Some hopeful bulls keep buying, but the money they throw at the market fails to achieve a new high. The announcement of ClassicCoin is a sensible fall-back strategy.
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