March 31, 2016 6:31 PM

Bitcoin Price Down Amid Fundamental Concerns

Bitcoin price hovers above $410 as the market comes face to face with its options. Buy today and risk betting on the reward-halving rally too soon, or sell now to buy into the post-Classic(TM) relief rally later.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC

OKCoin BTC/USD 1-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of, earlier today:

As anticipated in yesterday’s analysis post, magenta arrows at the top-right of the chart show that MACD has returned to its zero-line, and RSI has peaked above 60. The stochastics (top) will soon group at their maximum value.

The RSI peak had formed reverse divergence to a previous RSI peak and the high is not confirmed by price making a similar high above the corresponding price high. This reverse divergence should see price continue lower when the bulls get tired.

The initial target should be the $400 psychological level, but if price sells-off through it then the primary target of $370 comes into focus.

This is our planning for either a test of long-term support or a break below that support. If price bounces from the $400 level then traders should close all leveraged positions and buy-and-hold speculators return funds allocation to 50:50.

In the event that price fails to decline and simply continues higher, we wait for a buy signal back toward $430 or $440. This seems unlikely since the 4-hour chart 20MA is currently descending into a cross-over with the 4-hour 200MA.

Let’s wait for a sell signal and not make any assumptions.


Bitcoin price decline is hammering lower. Without as high a degree of decentralization as possible, and with reduced mining security, Bitcoin loses all meaning. Some hopeful bulls keep buying, but the money they throw at the market fails to achieve a new high. The announcement of ClassicCoin is a sensible fall-back strategy.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin-price chart.

What do readers think? Please comment below.

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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

Venzen Khaosan @venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.

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