Bitcoin Price Down Then Up

Journalist:
Venzen Khaosan @venzen
April 7, 2016

Bitcoin price continues inside its two-month sideways consolidation range. This time we’re in for a price dip that should return to current price levels after a small descent.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC

OKCoin 3Month Futures 1-Hour Chart

From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:

After making a rounded top yesterday, price declined toward the 1-hour 200-period moving average (200MA, red).

The current declining pattern resembles previous initial waves into decline (circled in magenta) but lacks the amplitude of those formations. Bitcoin trading volume has been gradually declining since the start of 2016, and the decreased participation is reflected in the decreasing range of price motion in the chart.

Similar technical conditions to previous declining waves are now present in the chart:

1) the 20MA (green) is descending (albeit slowly) toward the 200MA that supported price today.

2) RSI (second from top) is stair-stepping lower and has not yet formed a decisive divergence to price – implying additional lows.

3) MACD (panel above price) is declining below its zero-line and has failed to react to its lower Bollinger Band (by bouncing upwards).

As outlined in yesterday’s post we would expect price to decline to support at $410 (Bitstamp) and to then bounce back toward the 1-hour 200MA. Any break below $410 (Bitstamp) means a larger decline has gripped the complacent market and sub-$400 will emerge from the tea-leaves.

Summary

Bitcoin price is meandering through a multi-month consolidation that should culminate in a large trending move. Although the current corrective pattern is running out of space – with bounds at $432 and $410 in the reference Bitstamp chart – the tentative psychology could eventually shift to another area, higher or lower, in the chart.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin-price chart.

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Disclaimer

The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

Venzen Khaosan @venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.